Nova Giving Yankees' Doomsayers Reason To Relax
By Jeff Capellini, CBSNewYork/WFAN.com
NEW YORK (WFAN) -- Barring something unexpected, Ivan Nova will be the Yankees' fourth starter to begin the 2011 season. He's more than made his case this spring and has quelled to a degree the fear and loathing that has permeated the Bombers' still-smarting fan base following an offseason of disappointment.
When General Manager Brian Cashman saw his only winter gameplan go out the window with Cliff Lee's signing with the Phillies, many Yankees fans did what they customarily do -- they started panicking and making plans to fight for the wild card.
The Red Sox, after all, had just finished acquiring a premiere outfielder and stellar first baseman, while solidifying a pitching staff that many believe is the best by far in the American League. The Yankees were left with C.C. Sabathia pondering an out clause in his contract, A.J. Burnett seeing a witch doctor and really no plan to fill not one but two holes in the rotation.
RELATED: Sweeny Says: Yankees' March Madness | Yankees Discuss Ex-Met Oliver Perez
The fans waited out the blizzards and watched in horror as Cashman went out and signed one reclamation project after another. First there was once-heralded Mark Prior and then former Cy Young winner Bartolo Colon. And to top off the free agency period that wasn't Cashman inked Freddy Garcia. Needless to say, there was no joy in Mudville via the Major Deegan Expressway.
Enter Nova, a Dominican right-hander who many believe has the potential to be a more than serviceable starter in the majors. At this point it's impossible to predict what Nova is or what he will become, but in a rare season where the Yankees are not considered the front-runner in the AL East, they have managed to piece together a starting staff that's a bit better than a work in progress and certainly good enough to keep the team in games on a consistent basis. While much of the attention down in Florida has been focused on aging Colon and Garcia trying to recapture that which they once had and make this team, Nova has developed a nasty slider and some needed confidence.
The 24-year-old right-hander dominated the International League last season before being promoted to the big club for the final month. And while Nova didn't exactly take the majors by storm, he did show signs that he could be something worth sticking in the bank for a later date. His biggest problem was a lack of faith in his abilities as evidenced by the fact that, despite being a physical specimen and having a rather effortless delivery, he had problems navigating five or six innings, doing so just four times in seven starts.
But that's more of a confidence thing than a fatal flaw. It appears Nova has since matured. He's also developed a serious slider that moonlights as a wicked cut fastball. That new pitch has eliminated his tendancy to hang a curveball and has helped him stay more down in the zone. Nova can be a strikeout pitcher because he has decent put-away pitches, but will have a longer shelf life in this rotation if he's changing speeds and inducing ground balls.
So far this spring Nova has pitched to a 1.29 ERA in four starts, allowing just eight hits in 14 innings. Obviously he hasn't been facing the Red Sox in Fenway, but just imagine the concern there would be if he was getting lit up by a good number of minor leaguers. It's actually quite okay to get a little excited about spring training results, as long as there are no setbacks, injuries or a lack of direction. Nova threw six hitless innings against the Orioles on March 16, a performance that got everyone paying attention, mostly because he needed just 59 pitches to dismantle a lineup he was supposed to dismantle, that is if he was truly serious about being in the Yankees' rotation.
Make no mistake, Nova will go through more growing pains this season. He's not going to go out there and be dominant, though don't be surprised if he does have those outings that leave you in awe. He has the skills to be a very good pitcher in this league, but he cannot under any circumstances be viewed as a savior on this staff no matter how fast he starts or how good he is during numerous stretches. There are plenty of other guys on this team who should be expected to produce. The Yankees are built to score a ton of runs and finish games. They may have the best bullpen in the AL. They certainly have an elite back end of the pen with Rafael Soriano and Mariano Rivera.
Sabathia, and to a lesser degree Phil Hughes and Burnett, aside, it appears six innings will be the target for guys like Nova, Colon and Garcia, assuming the Yankees make the fourth and fifth slots by committee until someone steps forward and truly lays claim to the spots. Nova can be a calming influence after Sabathia and Hughes because he's gifted, a year wiser and will only be asked to put forth quality starts. The bats and pen should do the rest.
For the Yankees to stay relevant in the race for the division crown they will need four starters to win in the neighborhood of 60 games. Sabathia and Hughes should account for around 40. Is it asking too much of Burnett and Nova to get the other 20? No, but as things are right now Burnett seems like the bigger question mark of the two because he is always a work in progress. The fifth starter will also be key, but not until later when the off days become few and far between and the wear and tear of 162 starts to really take its toll.
If I was a betting man, which thank God I'm not, I'd say Nova should be good for 10-12 wins. And when that happens don't be surprised if you start hearing his name mentioned as a prominent piece in trade rumors to bring a proven stud to the Bronx.
He should be that good long term and a secret weapon of sorts for the Yankees in the interim.
Read more columns by Jeff Capellini.
Do you have thoughts on the Yankees' 2011 rotation? Please share them in the comments section below.
