By The Numbers: Is David Still Wright For Mets?

By Father Gabe Costa
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A few weeks ago, Mr. Brian Guetti appeared as a guest blogger, discussing the 2012 Yankees. In this episode of By The Numbers, he goes cross-town and muses on the question: “Should the Mets trade David Wright?”

Brian Guetti: In the Post-Minaya era of the New York Mets (a time where big-name free agent signings with questionable contracts are unthinkable, e.g. K-Rod, Pedro, Beltran, Johan, Bay) this key question has arisen. The Mets desperately needed a change of fiscal policy after it became apparent that Citi Field (and to an extent the team that plays there) was as attractive to the Mets fans as a poke in an already sore eye, summed up in one “sure-thing” pop out to Luis Castillo.

The Mets we knew too well, the “other” team in the city, had one exciting player: Jose Reyes. The oft-injured “face-of-the-franchise,” David Wright – by whom the Mets lived and died – epitomized all hope… yet it was hard to imagine Wright without being in touching distance of a trainer’s table.

For 2012, the Mets have young faces, no Reyes, and a general consensus that they will not be able to compete with the dominant Phillies, the new-look Miami Marlins, a consistent Atlanta Braves squad, and a Nationals team that is improving.

Wright has become the topic of debate. What do the Mets do with him? Do they keep him around? Can they trust that he will be healthy for a full season? Should they trade him now before they have to stomach the thought of whether to pay him $16 million for a 2013 option?

Realistically, Wright is capable of being at least a .300 hitter; he has above-average power, and hits a good number of doubles. While it can be argued that he is sub-par defensively, he is showcased with an occasional highlight moment (see: barehanded catch). A player of this quality is worth his contract. However, there have been “ups-and-downs” which have flummoxed Wright (and every Mets fan!) over the past few years. Why has he been so inconsistent? Why did he go from being a home run hitter to a singles hitter…then back to hitting near 30 home runs in 2010 to barely hitting .250 last year? Must it be Citi Field? Must it be the injuries?

The truth is, he may just be extremely inconsistent. Wright’s numbers over the past four years are given below:









































































From this, we see that Wright may be due for a bounce back year, provided he is healthy and the fences are moved in. There is reason for optimism here in that that the Mets will retain their franchise player.

Considering the state of the rest of the team, however, it might be smart to ship him for “pieces” that can grow up together, much like when the Mets had a young Wright and a young Reyes.

The problem with Wright, at the moment, is that his value is extremely low, so what the Mets might want to try is to see that if he gains any value in the first half of the season, if he is playing well and the team is not doing well, it may very well be obvious to everyone, not just Sandy Alderson, that Wrights’ tenure as a Met should end.

On the other hand, if Wright does not produce or if he gets injured again, then the Mets will have another year of this “limbo.”

The worst case scenario, of course, is that it would be a severe blow to the organization and its fans if they let Wright walk and get nothing in return.

There will one day be bluer skies for Mets fans and it is only a matter of time before some of these home-grown “pieces” end up producing and staying on the field (Ike Davis hopefully).

And they are still ultimately better off than they were with Omar Minaya as General Manager in terms of stability.

Should the Mets trade Wright for prospects? Be heard in the comments below…

  • Jack

    Does this guy know anything about the Mets! Oh yeah he wrote about the Yankees last week. Forgot about that detail. David Wright is AMAZING! If you trade him who else do we have. Reyes already left and i can’t watch him go too. Build around him. We NEED #5!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Gerry Attrick

    The oft-injured list for the Mets actually was owned by Beltran & Reyes. Wright is a solid player and a stand up guy in the clubhouse. The writer clearly either knows very little about the Mets players history over the last few seasons or simply doesn’t like Wright and is using this forum to bash him.

    • John. Paul & Peter

      the writer does the work for God, he has his help, so he knows what he’s talking about.

      Being a stand-up guy in the clubhouse, whatever the HELL that means in sports, does not win WS titles.

      Here’s some real facts about the Mets players in the last few years. Not one has help the Mets win a WS title, not one in 25 yrs as a matter of fact

      God also told me, that bringing the fences in at Citi Field will not help stand up guy Wright. So it has been written, so it shall be done.

  • Mark

    The METS need new ownership now! Too bad Joe Torre is moving in position to make an offer to buy the Dodgers. I wish someone could buy the Mets. Do not blame Sandy for not offering Jose a contract. The BIG PROBLEM lies with the owners!

    • Vinnie from the Bronx

      Torre is smart. If he does become part owner, he knows the Dodgers sell, just on their tradition alone. What do the Mets sell, Seaver & the ’86 Mets.

      The Yankees own NY sports in name alone, add the rich winning history, their rich Hall of Fame roster, playoffs every year, who can compete. The Dodgers have no competition in L.A. The Angels are not sellers in L.A

      Better investment with the Dodgers then the Mets by a wide margin.

  • Ugh

    Not to nitpick, but I feel the need to nitpick…

    Wright has not been “oft-injured”….not at all. Nor was it tough to imagine him without being in “touching distance of the training table”.

    He’s actually been about as durable as just about anyone over the years…certainly more durable than any position player on the Mets….only hit the DL 2 times in 7+ seasons (once due to a fluke HBP to the head). He played at least 150 gms 5 times in 7 yrs, playing 144 games in one of the others. 2011 was the only year he missed significant time.

    I think there might be a concern that the back injury he sustained in 2011 could be a lingering issue going forward, but its incorrect to say that he’s “oft injured” or imply that he’s missed a bunch of time. Maybe he’s had some other injuries that he just played through that didn’t become public knowledge…but I don’t think thats what you were implying here.

  • miichael

    Trade Wright as soon as he gets hot because it never last long he is just a padder and to inconsistent

  • Hank

    there’s as much chance of Reyes getting 3k hits as the is of Having an “Eddy Curry Night” at the Garden

  • LongTimeFan

    Alderson royally messed up by not even offering a contract to Reyes. The robotic, pre-programmed Alderson merely gives lip service to sentimentality and real people issues. I wouldn’t be surprised if he trades David Wright. It’s very unfortunate that a bona fide outsider who thinks he’s still in the Marines, or in court of law, can come right in and ruin fan-franchise-player bonds with stroke of a pen.

    When Reyes goes into the Hall of Fame under another team’s cap and with over 3,000 career hits, it will be Alderson’s fault….the ex-Marine who ultimately was too much of a coward to even offer a contract in fear of what people would think.

    • Ugh

      I was hoping the Mets would have signed Jose. But I don’t think “offering him a contract” would have made a difference. They had discussions about what the Mets were willing to offer and it wasn’t enough.

      Besides, if Sandy was truly concerned about “what people think” he would have signed Jose….that would have been the popular move. I think not signing him, if anything, shows that he doesn’t care what people think.

    • michael

      Alderson played his cards right he was never going to offer REYES a contract he just wanted to keep MET fans happy. Im glad he never offered him one he was not worth it he misses almost 40 to 50 games a year.Plus REYES is all about REYES in a few years Met fans will be happy we did not sign him.

    • Willie Mays

      When Reyes goes into the Hall of Fame, you’re joking right? I mean, we’re in January so I know it’s not an April fool’s Day joke.

      9 yrs in the majors and Reyes ONLY has 1300 hits. Reyes will need to hit an average of 170 hits a season in the next 10 years to reach 3000 hits. In his 9 yrs he’s average only 144 hits a season, let’s not forget Reyes is also injured prone and in order for Reyes to hit 3000 he has to stay healthy the next 10 yrs,

      He’s a career .292 hitter, not .320, so as the years go by there’s a great chance of him finishing his career as a .270 hitter then .300

      Never won a WS title, never will, and never won an MVP, never will. His career numbers do not add up. Reyes is not a Hall of Famer; maybe in that make believe Hall of Fame in Citi Field, but not the big Hall in Cooperstown.

      Wake up LongTimeFan, you’re still dreaming the Mets winning the WS the last few years, including Reyes being this great player that he is not.

      Imaginary WS titles and MVPs do not count in order to make it to Cooperstown.

      • Ryne Sandberg

        you are counting incomplete seasons against his averages – if you exclude outliers, he averages closer to 185 hits per season. I am not saying that he is a sure fire hall of famer… and I would guess close to 2,500 hits rather than 3,000 – but I wouldnt completely rule him out of Cooperstown.

        Reyes may end his career with 500 swipes, 150 Triples, 1,300 Runs, 150 Hrs, 800 or 900 RBIs, and 2,500 Hits.

        I can think of at least a bunch of players worse than that who are in cooperstown – and one player with very similar stuff who didn’t win a WS.

        • FYI

          So you’re saying Reyes will get better as a player as he ages then when he was younger.

          Reyes must’ve found the Fountain of Youth in his visit to Florida and not HGH in the Dominican Republic.

          Every player, great (Mays, Mantle, Pujols, Jeter, Bench, Musial, P. Martinez) or not (Ventura, Alfonzo, Brown, Larkin) skills diminished as they aged. Reyes will not be the exception to the rule.

        • Clark Kentt

          I agree with Willie. Reyes will not be a Hall of Famer If he would have been healthy the pass few years and had no signs of slowing down, projected to hit 3k then yea without a doubt. But with the figures you projected, nah I would say his chances would increase with those figures if he adds a few season mvp’s, 1 postseason mvp and 2 or more championships (with the projected figures your came up with). But at the end the chances for that to happen are very slim. I predict he’ll be traded on his 3rd or 4th year when his salary balloons to $20mm. The first 2 years are $ 10mm a piece and he doesn’t have a no trade clause hence the reason why Pujols didn’t go to Miami. He wanted a no trade clause.

        • He's Not Willie Mays

          HEY Ryne Sandberg, these numbers you added are imaginary numbers. You added these numbers like Reyes will be playing 162 every year and healthy.

          Incomplete seasons as you so stupidly stated are part on his career. You can’t eliminate bad years and include just the good ones and then add these numbers of yours base on the good years. It does not work that way Einstein.

          But you are a Mets fan after all. You still believe the Mets beat the Yankees in the 2000 WS

          • Imagine...

            You should exclude his rookie season because he didnt debut until June
            Even if you include 2009 (calf) and 2004 (hamstring) – he still averages 127 Games per season. At 1.238 hits per game, you are looking at about 157 hits per season. If he plays 145 ( the number i thought was a fair average) he will have 180 hits per season.

            Most players – especially the ones you pointed out – have their best seasons between the ages of 28-32. Let’s say reyes plays 8 more years and averages 140 games per a season, and after 4 years his production diminishes at a 5% APR – you get numbers like this:

            2,554 hits
            1,362 runs (used a -10% apr)
            152 triples (assuming he hits 0 triples after 32)
            159 HRs
            831 RBIs (you would assume more if he leaves the lead off spot)

            This is assuming reyes will take 22 Games on the DL every year, and get worse every year 4 years from now.

            I dont know what reyes’s numbers will look like 8 years from now… noone does, I was just saying that it isn’t unthinkable that he could end his career with cooperstown worthy stats. All i am saying is, not everyone who made the hall of fame was willie mays.

            — Also, I was at Game 5 in 2000 at Shea … pretty sure the mets lost!

            • Jeb

              Your imaginary career numbers for Reyes are better numbers then Barry Larkin’s and Larkin was a better player, won an MVP & a WS title and some are questioning whether Larkin belongs in the Hall of Fame.

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