Kallet: Jacob DeGrom Should Be Your 2014 National League Rookie Of The Year
By Brad Kallet, WFAN.com
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It's a tight race, but it really only comes down to two men for the 2014 National League Rookie of the Year Award.
Reds center fielder Billy Hamilton and Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom.
The latter should get the honor.
Assuming nothing drastic happens over the final two weeks of the season -- such as deGrom allowing eight runs in consecutive starts or Hamilton stealing 15 more bases -- the right-hander should edge the speedy Hamilton.
Also, considering that deGrom has been trending upward of late and Hamilton has been brutal in the second half, deGrom is likely to strengthen his case in his final outings of the season.
Let's take a close look at their respective seasons.
Hamilton, who plays a tremendous center field, has been the frontrunner to win the award all season. His 56 stolen bases -- second in the NL to Dee Gordon -- jump out at you, but the fact that he's been caught 22 times makes that figure far less impressive. He might be the fastest man in baseball, but he's far from a great base stealer at this point in his career. And as a leadoff hitter, his .297 on-base percentage is unthinkably bad. At the risk of sounding like a dorky Little League coach, you can't steal first base.
The 24-year-old is batting .259 and has shown an ability to hit for extra bases, belting six homers, 25 doubles and eight triples. But for a guy at the top of the lineup, he strikes out too much (111 Ks) and doesn't walk enough (30 bases on balls). He's a remarkable talent, but by no means has Hamilton had a great offensive campaign.
Now a look at deGrom, who has come out of virtually nowhere to cement himself as one of the most promising up-and-coming pitchers in the major leagues.
You have to ignore the pedestrian 8-6 record because wins, frankly, are a very deceptive statistic. If deGrom were on the Angels or the Tigers, his record would probably look more like 13-3. The offensively-challenged Mets have given him very little support over his 20 starts. DeGrom made his debut on May 15 against the Yankees and didn't get a win until his eighth -- eighth! -- start. He was 1-5 through his first 10 starts as a Met, but allowed only 25 runs in 59 2/3 innings over that span (3.77 ERA).
Since then, July's NL Rookie of the Month has been sensational, winning seven of his next eight decisions and lowering his ERA to a miniscule 2.62. The 6-foot-4, 185-pounder has lost just once since July 2 and hasn't surrendered an earned run in 22 consecutive innings. If he qualified -- his 127 1/3 innings pitched aren't enough -- deGrom's ERA would be good enough for sixth in the National League.
DeGrom has only allowed 107 hits -- and just seven home runs -- in his 127 1/3 innings of work. The command has been exceptional, with 121 strikeouts to 39 walks. In a rotation made up of young fireballers and crafty veterans, deGrom has separated himself as the most dynamic, effective and dependable of the bunch. Those Harvey, Syndergaard and Wheeler guys might have something to say about that in 2015.
The Stetson University product is scheduled to start on Monday night against the Marlins at Citi Field. Considering the game is in Flushing and the Marlins are without MVP candidate Giancarlo Stanton, it's a favorable matchup for deGrom. After the series opener New York will have 11 games remaining on its schedule, with two off-days on Thursday and next Monday.
General manager Sandy Alderson and manager Terry Collins could always decide to shut deGrom down prematurely to preserve him for next season, but if they let him pitch to the finish he should get the ball two more times after Monday night. He's lined up to face the Braves at Turner Field on Sunday and then the lowly Astros in Queens on September 27 in the final series of 2014. Atlanta and Houston are 29th and 17th in runs scored, respectively, so deGrom has a huge opportunity to pull away from Hamilton down the stretch.
If the voters fail to look past Hamilton's stolen bases and deGrom's win total, then the pitcher will be out of luck. But if the writers break it down and examine this closely, as they so often tend to do, then the Mets will have their first Rookie of the Year since Dwight Gooden in 1984.
Brad Kallet is an editor and columnist for CBSNewYork.com. He has written for TENNIS.com, MLB.com and SMASH Magazine, among others. You can follow him on Twitter @brad_kallet.
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