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Seen At 11: What's Does This Upcoming Winter Have In Store?

NEW YORK (CBSNewYork) – This year's cooler summer is raising a lot of questions about what comes next; will it be a milder winter or will the polar vortex return?

As CBS 2 Meteorologist Lonnie Quinn says, as we know, anything can happen from moment to moment, especially with contributing factors like the polar vortex bringing cold air down from the North Pole.

Remember the Super Bowl back in early February? It was 55 degrees during the game, but there were seven inches of snow on the ground just 12 hours later.

Well, brace yourself. It could be back now that fall has begun, according to the National Weather Service.

"They are forecasting certainly a higher probability of below-normal temperatures," NWS Meteorologist Gary Conte said.

But Lonnie Quinn says don't get out your parkas just yet. As quickly as this cooler air arrives, it will disappear.

"Last winter was one of the coldest in the last 20 years and it's been one of the snowier winters we've seen. One would think it would be less extreme this coming winter," New Jersey State Climatologist David Robinson said.

Robinson says while we may feel we're due for a break from a frigid winter this year, we may not get it.

"I think we have to hold back and see what El Niño might have to say," he said.

El Niño is the key, Quinn said, because winter really hinges on its development. A strong El Niño could lead to a more mild, but more active, winter with sloppy slush and rain. A weak El Niño could mean something different.

"We are seeing signs right now of a developing El Niño," Conte said.

The NWS won't commit to the strength of El Niño this far in advance, but there's always the Farmer's Almanac willing to go out on a limb, predicting a cold winter with above-normal snowfall.

The snowiest periods, they say, will be in mid and late December and mid-January.

But Quinn says as we've learned, no one is more fickle than Mother Nature so the winter weather really remains to be seen.

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