Palladino: Rex Ryan Is Definitely A Goner, Right? Don't Be So Sure
By Ernie Palladino
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The assumption that Rex Ryan will lose his job shortly after this disaster of a season does not exactly qualify as striding out on a thin, flimsy limb.
It's a pretty forgone conclusion, put forth in this bye week by the media after close observation of not only the current wreck of this 2-8 season, but the three fiascos that preceded it.
Time is up. Rex is gone after this one, no doubt about it.
Unless he isn't.
This has less to do with the "What if?" game than with the "What's Woody Johnson thinking about?" game. For all the media's locker room and league sources, nobody knows what ideas are floating around Johnson's cerebrum. All we have is his early-season dismissal that Ryan's future hinged on a playoff spot. For all the good detail, deep analysis and probing questions of dedicated, knowledgeable reporters, the resolution to this story won't come until Johnson's final say. And the owner isn't talking yet.
That leaves open a slim possibility that the media will be wrong about this whole Rex Ryan firing thing.
It wouldn't be a first. News organizations have had many "Dewey Defeats Truman" moments, usually on a smaller scale than a coaching change. Just read any pregame analysis in any sport. Predicted blowouts wind up as upsets every week. Potentially historic pitching matchups find both starters out before the fifth inning. Teams predicted to make the regular season a coronation march rather than a battle for the division title finish near the bottom. It happens.
Not all employment decisions are black (he's gone) or white (he's staying), either. Consider the Giants in 2006.
There was absolutely, positively no way John Mara and Steve Tisch could retain Tom Coughlin after the Giants barely squeaked into the playoffs after a 2-6 second-half collapse. As much as the media hated the 8-8 team's on-field performance, they despised the rigid, terse, surly martinet wearing the headphones.
Jeremy Shockey sniped at him. Tiki Barber argued with him. Agents whispered that no free agents of any quality would ever in their right minds come to the Meadowlands to play for a man who would fine you for walking into a meeting two minutes EARLY. His insistence on Coughlin Time -- five minutes early for everything -- proper dress and dedication to his methods made him an anachronism, a throwback to a less player-friendly era.
The columnists openly rooted for his demise. The Giants would never win with that kind of man in charge, they said.
He walked off the field for the last time after a 23-20 Wild Card loss in Philly. Except, he didn't. The owners shocked everyone. They kept him around. They handed him a one-year extension so he wouldn't go into the 2007 season as a lame duck. They told him to change.
He did. Then he went out and won the Lombardi Trophy. And then he won another in 2011. Regardless of what happens after this season -- whether Coughlin stays, gets fired outright or is coaxed into retirement -- the owners have already reaped the rewards of their faith in him.
Johnson could easily follow the Giants' example, even if the post-bye scene looks no better than what preceded it. Even if it's a lot harder to keep a coach around after 4-12 than 8-8. We do know he loves Ryan personally and would hate to fire him, regardless of record. The only difference is that Ryan is probably not going to win any Super Bowls here, especially if he remains under the control of a general manager who knows more about the salary cap than athletic talent.
Except for a 6-0 finish, a near impossibility considering four of those games come against Buffalo, Miami and New England, all signs point to Ryan's exit on or around Dec. 29. But as the past has taught us, the road signs don't always point in the right direction.
We won't know Ryan's true fate until Johnson tells us.
And he's not talking yet.
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