Schmeelk: After NCAA Tournament, Big Men Should Still Sit Atop Draft Boards
By John Schmeelk
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The college basketball season is over, and the very top of most NBA draft boards should look the same in 77 days as they did five month ago: Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor, and then everyone else. The NBA combine and personal workouts can still change things, but barring something wacky, those two centers should still be the first two players taken in June.
Very often, the NCAA Tournament will lead to the emergence of new players near the top of the board, and this year was no different. Players like Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker and Justise Winslow certainly helped their standing. But in my opinion, none approach either Towns or Okafor.
Winslow is the closest, and he could perhaps encroach into Emmanuel Mudiay and D'Angelo Russell territory at three or four by the time their pre-draft evaluation is complete. But the two grand prizes are still Okafor and Towns, and the tournament did nothing to change that.
Both players flashed the same strengths and weaknesses they showed over the course of the season, but there were a few instances where each player showed something a little different that might alter some of the preconceived notions about them.
Okafor proved once again that when he gets the ball in good position in the post, he is unstoppable. His good footwork, strength and ability to use both hands make him impossible to keep way from the rim. He even showed the ability to face up and use his agility to maneuver around defenders. Bigger and stronger than his opponents, he can shrug them off while using his wide frame to shield the ball and finish layups. He is a force.
Okafor's flaws were also on display. He is a mess at the free-throw line, something that would be a huge detriment at the pro level, especially at the end of games. With his soft touch, many anticipate this will improve quickly, but there is no way to know for sure. The Duke center was also inconsistent in his effort and tenacity protecting the rim, and with his rebounding. He got into foul trouble in the championship game, but that was a one-off problem. I was impressed by a couple of moments when he played better pick-and-roll defense than advertised, and he showed decent side-to-side quickness staying in front of faster players. The concerns about his defense and his overall athleticism and explosiveness remain.
Towns only reinforced his strengths near the basket as a finisher, rebounder, defender and shot blocker. He is long, active and able to defend most power forwards and centers. His free-throw shooting remained extremely consistent, around 80 percent. He was quick enough to stay in front of and get in position to draw a charge on 6-foot-7 Nigel Hayes in the Final Four.
Towns also flashed a number of post moves much more consistently that we only saw at times during the regular season. He showed the ability to slide across, step through the lane around defenders and finish with either hand. He also demonstrated some more range in the lane with his hook shot. As a negative, Towns did struggle guarding Kaminsky on the perimeter, something that was supposed to be his strength. (Okafor had similar issues.)
Both players still have questions they need to answer in the pros. Okafor's issues begin with his foul shooting and defense, but they don't end there. He won't have the same physical advantage over his NBA competition as he did in college. His ability to dominate with his strength, establish position and finish despite contact will not come as easily. He will need to get even stronger if he wants to play the same way. Whether he will have the athleticism and quick leaping ability to finish over bigger and more athletic players is also a question.
As for Towns, his lean frame will not allow him to get as deep in the post as he did in college. He will have to get stronger in order to compete in the post and maintain his rebounding position in the paint. He also had a tendency to get into foul trouble at Kentucky, despite limited minutes. Defending without fouling will be a challenge in the NBA. Offensively, there are legitimate questions as to whether he will be ready to be a scorer in his rookie season.
Both players are going to be All-Stars -- at a minimum -- unless injuries get in the way. I've vacillated back and forth three or four times in the past few months over which player I would pick if I had the option with the first pick in the draft.
That's the challenge the Knicks face, and it illustrates the importance of getting one of the top two picks in the draft come the lottery in May. Either Towns or Okafor would give the franchise a new, young cornerstone to build around.
They need one desperately.
You can follow me on Twitter @Schmeelk for everything Knicks, Giants, Yankees and the world of sports.
