Watch CBS News

Schmeelk: Should The Knicks Trade Down? It's Complicated

By John Schmeelk
» More Columns

So should the Knicks trade down?

Numerous media reports over the last few days about the Knicks' draft pick have suggested something pretty simple: If Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor and D'Angelo Russell are off the board, the Knicks will trade their draft pick. As with most things, it isn't that simple. There has to be a trade partner willing to give up something that will help the Knicks and make it worth moving down however many spots in the draft they would in such a deal.

The first question the Knicks need to ask themselves is the following: How far are they willing to drop to still feel confident about getting a high-caliber player?

How deep is their list of players that they think can be short-term and long-term difference-makers?

The list most assuredly includes Towns, Russell, Okafor, Kristaps Porzingis, Mario Hezonja, Emmanuel Mudiay, Willie Cauley-Stein and Justise Winslow. Jackson should try very hard not to drop out of the top eight, even if that means getting a slightly smaller return for the fourth pick. There's a decent chance that whomever the Knicks pick at eight will be just as good as who they get at four (assuming the top three players are off the board).

The big question is what the Knicks think of the next group of prospects, expected to go 9-15. These players include Devin Booker, Frank Kaminsky, Cameron Payne, Stanley Johnson, Sam Dekker, Trey Lyles and Myles Turner. (For my take on some of these players, check this out). If I were in Phil Jackson's shoes, I would not -- under any circumstance -- drop past the 11th pick in the draft. In my opinion, there is another small drop off after Payne, Booker and Frank Kaminsky, but Jackson and his scouts might think otherwise.

Once the Knicks decide how far they are willing to fall in the draft, they need to decide what their priorities are. There are a few things the Knicks can try to accomplish in a trade like this.

1. Get a lottery pick back in this year's draft. (This is an absolute, unconditional must.)

2. Obtain an additional first-round pick in either this year's draft or in 2016, when the Knicks do not own a first-round pick.

3. Rid themselves of Jose Calderon's contract.

4. Obtain a young veteran with a reasonable contract who can help the team now, but also continue to improve in the future.

Obtaining an extra pick should be at the top of the team's priority list. There is not a lot of young talent on the team (Langston Galloway, Tim Hardaway Jr.), and the Knicks are going to have to fill out a roster with a lot of open spaces.

Acquiring a first-round pick next year provides the team with a lot more flexibility in future transactions -- they can then trade one of their picks in the next two years if they choose -- and makes them a player in the 2016 draft. Adding picks this year gives them more immediate help, but the flexibility that a 2016 pick gives them would be even more helpful.

The only bad contract (depending on how you view Carmelo Anthony's) on the roster belongs to Calderon. The Knicks can waive him using the stretch provision, which would minimize his salary-cap impact over the next five years ($3 million per season). But if they keep him, he will count just over $15 million on the salary cap over the next two seasons. That is valuable money that can be used elsewhere to bring in younger free agents. Agreeing to take Calderon would be a nice sweetener that a team could offer to get a deal done.

The most common deal the Knicks have been rumored to be involved in involves using a trade exception to acquire a veteran, making the team competitive now. This is unattractive for a couple of reasons.

The veteran comes with a contract that would take up salary-cap space. The Knicks would have to be convinced not only that the player is good, but that the money owed to him could not be used just as well on the open market this offseason. Whatever money the Knicks bring back on a veteran contract in a trade is money they cannot spend in free agency.

The formula the Knicks need to use is simple: Is the veteran and the pick they get back more valuable than their draft pick? Unless that formula comes back in the Knicks' favor, they can't trade for a veteran. The ideal player the Knicks would get in a move like this is someone still on a rookie contract, who is controllable for a couple of years. But those players are often ones that teams don't like to trade. Making a trade like this work is more difficult than a lot of people make it out to be.

There's one more important detail that fans need to understand about the Knicks trading their pick: They can't do it until after they actually make their pick. Since the team doesn't own its own pick next year, it is prohibited from trading its pick before it is made. This actually plays to the Knicks' advantage, since they can wait and see how picks 7-12 play out. They can wait and see if a player they like falls, and then approach a team for a trade later.

The trick is to make sure the player they select is one who other teams would be interested in acquiring. That brings us back to the overall strategy that the Knicks need to employ in this draft: Pick the best player available, even if it is Porzingis. The Knicks need to pick the best player that is there at four, regardless of fit or anything else. If they do that, making a trade later on shouldn't be too difficult. The Knicks could draft Porzingis or Mudiay, and then all of a sudden Cauley-Stein is still on the board at 10. Then, a trade could be in the offing with the Heat if they like either one of those two players.

I could also foresee a situation where the Sixers decide they are fine drafting Porzingis or Russell (if both are available when they pick), and decide they would be more than happy to trade down with the Knicks to acquire a future second-rounder or two to move up one spot. The Knicks would get their preferred player at three (Russell) and the Sixers would still get Porzingis (and at a lower salary slot). I wouldn't consider this likely by any means, but it is something that could happen.

The Knicks have to be extremely cautious if they decide to trade out of the fourth pick in the draft. They could have a chance to draft a future star in Mudiay or Porzingis. If they lose out on either player for a moderate short-term improvement, they will regret it for a long, long time.

The Knicks had the worst season in franchise history. When that happens, teams get the chance to acquire a star to fix their problems. The Knicks could have that chance, even with the fourth pick. If they trade away that type of player, it could set the franchise back another decade. In other words, they better not screw this up.

You can follow me on Twitter @Schmeelk for everything Knicks, NBA and the Giants. 

View CBS News In
CBS News App Open
Chrome Safari Continue
Be the first to know
Get browser notifications for breaking news, live events, and exclusive reporting.