Schmeelk's 2015-16 Knicks Season Preview, Plus A Prediction
By John Schmeelk
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On Tuesday night, the one and only Sir Charles Barkley, the same man who threw a couple of gallons of gasoline on the dumpster fire that was the Knicks last year, guaranteed that they would be in the playoffs. There's a legitimate chance Barkley simply forgot that teams like the Raptors, Wizards and Celtics are in the Eastern Conference, but his opinion reflects some of the guarded optimism for a team coming off the worst season in franchise history.
To paraphrase Barkley, the Knicks have real NBA players now. They are far from perfect, and nowhere near championship-worthy, but they should be competent on both ends of the floor. Coming off a 17-win season, competence is a step in the right direction as the Knicks try to build a foundation for the future. With the future in mind, the goal this season is still to win as many games as possible. Without a first-round draft pick (swapped for Denver's pick in the Carmelo Anthony trade and completely traded in the Andrea Bargnani trade), there's no incentive to do anything but win.
SCHMEELK: PREDICTING THE KNICKS, PLAYER BY PLAYER
Much like the Knicks did the last time they were any good, they will rely heavily on Anthony to do just about everything offensively. They need him healthy the entire season, and be explosive enough to carry the offense and draw constant double-teams. He also has to do a better job of getting closer to and finishing near the basket. He relied on mid-range jumpers far too much in the preseason. Without Melo's efficient scoring, even with a more wide open triangle offense featuring more transition and pick-and-roll play, it will be impossible to score enough points with any consistency.
Finding a true secondary scorer will be one of the biggest challenges this team is going to face. Though their futures are bright, expecting that out of either Kristaps Porzingis or Jerian Grant is a bridge too far. Arron Afflalo has served in that type of role before, but last year saw a sharp decline in his offensive production, not to mention the hamstring injury that will keep him sidelined the first two weeks of the season.
Afflalo's injury and defensive decline is also a huge concern for the Knicks' perimeter defense. Jose Calderon, potentially Sasha Vujacic and Anthony guarding the three best perimeter players on any NBA team is extremely scary. Good rim protection with Robin Lopez and Porzingis will help, but the Knicks will have to be able to keep guards out of the paint and close out on the three-point line.
What could change the Knicks' fortunes and push them into the playoffs would be a breakout year from one of their young players. The three young pieces with the physical talent to break out are Porzingis, Grant and Derrick Williams. Porzingis should be solid, but a breakout this early in his development is unlikely. Williams has toiled too long in this league for me to count on him for anything spectacular. The Knicks' best chance is Grant, the senior from Notre Dame who has a pro feel for the pick and roll and is one of the only Knicks not named Anthony who can penetrate and create shots for himself and others.
Derek Fisher will officially be on watch this year, as well. Given a pass last year due to the horrid roster he was forced to endure, Fisher will be under the microscope this season. From the preseason, it would seem as though the offense has moved beyond the robotic machinations of the triangle and into a more free-flowing approach that should help the offense. Fisher would also be wise to find a rotation and stick with it, something he couldn't do last year due to injury and ineffectiveness. Barring any more guest starring roles on "Basketball Wives, The Matt Barnes Edition," Fisher seems to be on the right track.
Defensively, Fisher also stressed the need to defend the three better, something the Knicks were very poor at last year. The Knicks haven't played decent defense since Jeff Van Gundy was head coach, and until that changes nothing else is going to matter much. A number of the Knicks' free-agency decisions were made with defense in mind, so a failure to get into the middle tier of league defensive rankings would be a serious disappointment.
Getting off to a fast start will also be very important for the Knicks. Starting 1-5 would cause rumblings about Fisher getting fired, Jackson getting canned for Isiah Thomas and Anthony thinking about waiving his no-trade clause. The Knicks are still in a fragile place, and a bad start could send them back spiraling into a bad place. Let's all hope that doesn't happen. Fans don't want to see it, and I've written enough of those types of stories the last two years.
The Knicks will be watchable. They have a bunch of guys that should try hard every night. But unfortunately I don't think they have enough support for Anthony, or the perimeter defense to get to 40 wins. I will put them at 36-46, and a few games out of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. With a lot of cap space next offseason and potential free agents in Afflalo and Williams, this team might not be together for the long-term. That being said, it will be a valuable year of growth for the Knicks' young players. This will be a small positive step in the right direction, something a franchise coming off 17 wins desperately needs.
You can follow me on Twitter @Schmeelk.
