Track Remains Unclear For Snowstorm That May Come To NYC Area This Week
NEW YORK (CBSNewYork) -- A snowstorm is expected to blow into the Tri-State Area Friday night into Saturday, but it was too early Tuesday to be even remotely sure how much snow will likely fall on the area.
AccuWeather reported Tuesday that a major winter storm is expected to strike and could mean heavy snow from Roanoke, Virginia to Boston – including, of course, New York City. AccuWeather warned that when the storm reaches its full potential, and tracks just off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, it could turn into a blizzard – shutting down highways and even causing airport closures.
"This could be a long-duration snowfall that could last more than 24 hours in some locations," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams said in a news release.
CBS2's Lonnie Quinn reported that the conditions are likely right for a snowstorm. This is the coldest full week of winter so far this season, with below-freezing temperatures for at least a period of time every day. Together with moisture that is expected, major snow could be in order.
But the National Weather Service said in a special weather statement that its confidence level rates at 30 to 49 percent for a major snowstorm for the New York City area – which Quinn described as not even amounting to the flip of a coin.
CHECK: Forecast
As of Tuesday afternoon, the storm was a rainstorm near the West Coast, tracking from Los Angeles to Las Vegas. Its future track will be determined by conditions comparable to a pinball machine, in which the storm will be like a ball hitting metaphorical flippers that will affect where it goes.
After crossing over the Rocky Mountains, the storm is expected to continue east – perhaps with some added Gulf Coast moisture – and then work its way north and turn into snow. But it could also move out to sea.
If the storm moves due east and then turns north-northeast over the Jersey Shore and Long Island, New York City could indeed get 6 to 12 inches of accumulation, Quinn reported.
If the storm ends up tracking over Washington, D.C., the snowfall totals will be far lighter in the New York City area and heavier upstate, and of course, if the storm goes out to sea, it will be an issue for the oysters and octopuses.
The European Model – which is well-known for its devastating -- and spot-on -- forecast for Superstorm Sandy in October 2012 – anticipates only modest snowfall for the area.
The model anticipates 4.6 inches of snow for New York City; 5.8 inches for Trenton, New Jersey; 2.9 inches for Sparta, New Jersey; and 1.7 inches for Poughkeepsie by 9:30 a.m. Sunday. Under the European Model, the highest totals are expected to bring its largest snowfall closer to Washington, D.C.
The GFS Model shows larger totals, with more than a foot of snow for some. That model calls for a total of 10.5 inches for New York City; 10.8 inches for Brick, New Jersey; and 15.8 inches for Trenton.
As of Tuesday evening, no other models were yet available. But Quinn said more models will make the picture clearer on Wednesday night.
