Sweeny: Yankees' 2017 Solution For First Base May Be A Familiar Face
By Sweeny Murti
» More Columns
Greg Bird's injury affects the 2017 Yankees a lot more than it affects them in 2016.
The Yankees announced Monday that Bird is having season-ending surgery for a labrum tear in his right shoulder, a problem that first surfaced last year but has not gotten better. In fact, it has gotten worse, and that's why Bird is off the Yankees' radar in 2016.
But, remember, despite Bird's spectacular arrival last August he was not even viewed as a favorite to make this year's opening day roster. With a healthy Mark Teixeira back as the starting first baseman and the more versatile Dustin Ackley as his backup, the Yankees determined months ago that Bird was better suited taking every day at-bats and reps at Triple-A, readying for what was likely to be a step up to the big league job when Teixeira could be let go as a free agent after this upcoming season.
That last part -- I have to believe that's not going to happen that easily anymore. Brian Cashman would only say Monday that he wanted Bird to get healthy again before determining what plan the Yankees had for him in 2017, but realistically his chances of being the opening day first baseman next season have flown out the window.
Think about it. The Yankees are not in a position -- no team is, really -- to hand over the first base job to a kid with less than two months' major league experience, coming off a major surgery and a full year without playing. A healthy Bird is still one of the best prospects the Yankees have and they will proceed still believing that, as they should. But the year of development he is losing, both offensively and defensively, is a major blow at this stage of his career.
So where could/would the Yankees go to fill their first base void after this season? I'm not sure you have to look all that far. It could be Teixeira.
I tweeted that possibility Monday and fans went crazy, most ready to kick Teixeira out the door before this season even starts. Slow your troll roll for a minute and think about this logically.
Teixeira's durability is the thing that drives Yankee fans crazy, and granted 2013 and 2014 (wrist injury) offer little argument. But 2015 really was a different story. The mysterious bone bruise that became a fracture and kept Teixeira out for the last month and a half of the season was a freak injury. Before that he played in 109 of the first 117 games. Don't forget that he hit 31 home runs, posted an OPS over .900, and was a Gold Glove finalist.
It's easy to peg Teixeira as injury prone. And as he enters his age 36 season, Teixeira certainly isn't a candidate for a long-term deal at age 37. But if he manages to put up 30 homers again this year, don't be so quick to ride him out of town.
Here is Baseball Prospectus' list of potential free agent first basemen after the 2016 season:
Pedro Alvarez
Ike Davis
Edwin Encarnacion
Adam LaRoche
Adam Lind
James Loney
Justin Morneau
Kendrys Morales *
Mitch Moreland
Brandon Moss
David Ortiz *
Carlos Santana *
Justin Smoak
Nick Swisher *
Mark Teixeira
Asterisks indicate players with contract options. Some of the guys on this list are designated hitters who travel with a first baseman's mitt. Of the others, who do you want to go after? Encarnacion is the biggest thumper, but he's one of those DH's who merely carries a glove. In fact, only three players on this list have been finalists for a Gold Glove in the last three years -- LaRoche, Loney, and Morneau. None of them are legit 30-home run threats this year. The pickings aren't lush enough to ignore Teixeira if he is healthy and productive.
What could he get? Well I'm going to assume the Yankees would only be willing to go one-year deal here. Does that mean a qualifying offer in the $16 million range? That would depend not only on the year he's coming off, but also the terms of the new collective bargaining agreement. I would guess the Yankees would try to get him at a lesser number, but if he goes 30/100 they might not quibble on a QO.
As for the CBA, the Yankees are anxiously waiting to see if the luxury tax structure remains the same and what the new threshold will be. It's been my feeling that knocking Teixeira and Carlos Beltran off the books after this season might give them a legitimate shot of coming under the tax threshold -- which is currently $189 million, but is likely to be raised somewhat in the new CBA -- and possibly give the Yankees more spending power for 2018.
If it were as simple as replacing Teixeira's salary number with Bird's the net gain on payroll would be nearly $22 million. If Teixeira were to be re-signed for 2017 his number would be less than $22 million, but it certainly wouldn't provide the same amount of relief towards the tax threshold.
And while I'm thinking about it, this is quite similar to 2012 when the Yankees first laid eyes on that tax threshold with some realism. But when cheap rotation options like Michael Pineda and Manny Banuelos landed on the disabled list, those visions disappeared quickly. Bird's injury could have a similar affect on the overall payroll structure. Even if it's not Teixeira, finding a quality replacement will be costlier than having a rookie manning that position.
And down the road, the Yankees have also lost a year of cost control for their future first baseman, because the timing of Bird's injury will land him on the major league DL and provide him with a year of major league salary and service time, pushing him a little closer to arbitration.
The bottom line is that you hate to see a young player with this much potential suffer a serious injury, but the timing of it has ramifications for this team beyond this season. Bird's injury really shouldn't impact what kind of a team you thought the Yankees had in 2016. It just puts a bigger question mark on what happens after that.
Follow Sweeny on Twitter at @YankeesWFAN
