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Schmeelk: How And When Do Knicks Take Next Step?

By John Schmeelk
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The Knicks are having a decent season. If things continue to progress, they'll finish with somewhere between 36 and 40 wins and just miss the playoffs. No one with realistic expectations could have imagined the team doing much better than that.

Progress has been made, but this is the easy step. It isn't hard to go from an awful team to a below-average team. It is far more difficult to go from an average team to a good team, and then from a good team to a great team. How the Knicks get there given their current roster and salary cap situation is not clear.

When it comes to the salary cap, the Knicks are not in a bad position, but they aren't in good position, either. Without getting into the nitty gritty of salary cap machinations, the Knicks could easily be in a position next summer in which they do not have enough money to offer a max contract to someone if their players don't opt out of their deals.

Arron Afflalo has an $8 million player option, while Derrick Williams has a $4.5 million player option. With the salary cap expected to climb by more than $20 million, both players could very well decide to test free agency again to try to get a more lucrative long-term contract.

If they do, the Knicks will have room for a max contract, even with the cap holds needed to hold onto the rights to Langston Galloway and Lance Thomas. They could then re-sign those players by going over the cap after spending their available space. (They are both extremely necessary due to their defense off the bench.) The Knicks could also use the stretch provision on Jose Calderon, freeing up about $5 million, but that's a move that would leave them without a point guard. It is an option, however, to assure themselves of a max slot.

Where can the Knicks spend their money this summer? Kevin Durant? Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski reported this week that Durant's biggest concern is winning and he would consider playing with the Warriors. Durant also would like to stay with the Thunder. The Knicks weren't even mentioned as a potential destination. To consider this any more than a pipe dream would be foolish for Knicks management. Go for it, by all means, but there has to be a good backup plan.

Memphis' Mike Conley? He is a point guard in his prime that passes well and defends at an All-Star level. He would appear to be the best fit of all the free agents out there, but how good would his addition make the Knicks? If you add Conley to the current roster, how much better do they become? Do they jump into the low 50s in wins and compete for a home playoff series? Last year, teams needed 49 wins to get the fourth seed in the East.

The Knicks would improve with a more skilled point guard and would also get better due to the natural maturation of Kristaps Porzingis and their young players. The calculation that New York's front office has to make is whether or not a rotation of Carmelo Anthony, Conley, Porzingis, Robin Lopez, Galloway, Thomas, Jerian Grant, Kyle O'Quinn and some undetermined players (remember in this scenario, both Afflalo and Williams opt out) are good enough to be an upper-echelon playoff team. The team would be borderline top 4 in the East, but certainly not championship caliber.

Another $20 million of space hits the league the following year, but if the Knicks go over the cap to retain Thomas and Galloway, they will not have space to add a max-contract type of player. It would keep the team stuck in the 3-4 seed range until Porzingis makes the jump to All-Star status. By the time that happens, how much will Anthony (who turns 33 in 2017) have left in the tank?

That's also assuming Conley signs with the Knicks, which would be a best-case scenario, though still much worse than a 50/50 shot. If the Knicks can't land Conley or Durant (there are other good free agents in the class such as DeMar DeRozan, Nicolas Batum and Bradley Beal, but they all have fit/cost/value issues), would they be better off saving their money and hitting 2017 with cap space to land a max player and someone else?

In 2017, the Knicks have a first-round pick, and Afflalo, Williams (though he might be a part of the future) and Calderon would all be off the cap. Ideally, Galloway and Thomas would be back on team-friendly deals. The Knicks would have great flexibility to attack a free agent class featuring players such as Blake Griffin, Russell Westbrook (If Durant leaves would he stay?), Stephen Curry (not happening), Chris Paul, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kyle Lowry, Gordon Hayward, Victor Oladipo, and Jrue Holiday. An emerging Porzingis, assuming he makes some sort of jump soon, would make the team more attractive to players.

Depending on Anthony's health and long-term outlook for playing well into his mid-30s, the team could attempt to flip him to a team trying to win now for a younger player that could line up better with Porzingis' prime years. If Porzingis develops into a center, the Knicks could also look to trade Lopez for a more complementary piece to Porzingis.

Those would be deals the Knicks could afford to be patient with, and wait for the right value. If it doesn't come along, they could choose to do nothing, but team president Phil Jackson must also be cautious not to allow Anthony to decline too much before he tries to trade him.

Of course, much like there is no guarantee in 2016, counting on the 2017 free agency class is risky as well. There's no predicting where players will decide they want to play. But that's the situation the Knicks have put themselves in. Do they try to go all in on 2016, or wait until 2017 and bide their time a little bit? Can Anthony wait that long? How quickly will Porzingis jump to All-Star status, which is really the key to all of this?

The best option is probably to stay the course for 2016, hope Afflalo and Williams both opt in, let Porzingis and Grant grow, use your first-round pick in 2017, attack the 2017 free agent class and make whatever the best decisions are regarding Anthony and Lopez.

More information will be available, and the Knicks would be in a better cap situation. Durant and Conley would be the only two players that should make the Knicks think twice about that plan. Use the trade deadline this year to put yourself in a better position the next two summers, whether salary cap or draft pick-wise.

Tearing things down again is not an option. The goal is to build around Porzingis and build a title contender.

Getting there won't be easy. There has to be a mix of patience and urgency. Porzingis is the future, but Anthony is the present. How do you balance them? That's the toughest question Jackson will have to answer the next two summers.

For everything Knicks, Giants and the world of sports, please follow John on Twitter at @Schmeelk

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