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Schmeelk: Knicks Will Have Chance To Upgrade If Afflalo Opts Out

By John Schmeelk
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When Arron Afflalo was sent to the bench by Kurt Rambis, it appeared to seal his decision to opt out of his contract this upcoming offseason.

The decision will ultimately be beneficial to the Knicks because they'll gain an additional $8 million to operate under the salary cap, and as a result all have close to a max slot allotment available to them.

It also means the Knicks will have to go out and find a shooting guard. Without Afflalo, they don't really have one on the roster, and, no, Sasha Vujacic doesn't count. Phil Jackson has also had the propensity for favoring wing players over point guards, making a big splash at the 2 far more likely, in my opinion.

Here are the Knicks' options: (I've left LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Kevin Durant off the following list because I don't find any of the three realistic)

-- DeMar DeRozan: On the surface this makes a lot of sense. At 26, DeRozan is playing some of his most efficient offensive basketball of his career (45 percent shooting from the floor). He likes to penetrate, something the Knicks crave. He can also operate in the mid-range, which Jackson loves. He has improved his 3-point shooting to 34 percent this season, but for a shooting guard that is still a low percentage. He averages four assists and four rebounds a game.

The big red flag, besides the 3-point shooting, is his defense. The Raptors are significantly worse defensively with him on the floor, and advanced defensive metrics have him pegged as one of the worst defensive 2 guards in the league. The Knicks need to get better defensively, and DeRozan won't do that. He's a max-contract guy.

-- Nicolas Batum: I consider him more of a small forward, but he has played some shooting guard for the Hornets this season even though he stands at 6-foot-8. He does everything well, averaging 15 points, six rebounds and six assists. He struggles a bit with his shooting at just 43 percent, including 35 percent from 3. At 27, he is a good defensive player, even though Charlotte is slightly better defensively with him off the floor. Defensive Real Plus-Minus has him as the 18th best defensive shooting guard in the league.

Batum would be a nice addition for the Knicks, who need more versatile players that don't have major weaknesses and can do a little of everything. If he doesn't get a max contract, he won't get one that's much smaller than DeRozan. He was awful last season, which might scare some people. Jackson loves smart basketball players with length and Batum is one of them.

-- Bradley Beal: Beal has been in the league for four years, but is just 22. Many expected a breakout from him this season, but it didn't come. He's been solid, averaging more than  17 points per game, but his 3-point percentage is the lowest of his career (38 percent). He's still shooting 44 percent from the field (the best of his career), thanks to his improved shooting inside the arc. The best is yet to come for him, but injuries have plagued him in his young career, as he has played just 56, 73, 63 and 52 games, respectively, over his first four seasons.

Beal has struggled defensively this season and the Wizards have been better with him off the floor on that end. Advanced stats put him right next to DeRozan, near the bottom of the shooting guard defensive rankings. If he isn't a max contract guy, he won't be that far behind, though since it is his first deal since his rookie contract it won't be as expensive as a vet's max deal. If he can stay healthy, he could grow with Kristaps Porzingis. He is a restricted free agent, so the Wizards could match any offer.

-- Evan Fournier: Only 23, Fournier, like Beal, will be a restricted free agent coming off of his rookie contract. He made a big jump since going to the Magic, scoring 15 points per game this season on 46 percent shooting and 40 percent from behind the arc. He has played his best basketball over the last month, averaging just under 18 points per game and shooting almost 50percent from the field since February.

Fournier helps Orlando's offense, but his defense negates all that, with teams scoring six more points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor. The Magic can match any contract offered to him, but the opinion seems to be that he can be had for less of a monetary commitment than Beal, Batum or DeRozan.

-- Evan Turner: Turner does a little bit of everything, but nothing particularly well. He'll average around 10 points per game, close to five rebounds and five assists, and shoot in the mid-40 percentile. His biggest detriment is his inability to shoot the 3, which has been under 30 percent the last two seasons.

The Celtics are better defensively when he is on the floor, and he is the 20th-ranked defensive shooting guard if you use Defensive Real Plus-Minus, far better than three of the four players above him on this list. He has a lower ceiling, but always plays and would be a helpful player at just 27 and with a lower-cost contract.

-- Eric Gordon: Once a budding star, Gordon has simply struggled to stay healthy. He's also 27, but in his eight NBA seasons he has played in 78, 62, 56, 9, 42, 64, 61, and 45 games, respectively. Gordon peaked at 22 points per game on 45 percent shooting in 2010-11, but since then he has never averaged more than 17 points or shot better than 43 percent. He just isn't the same player and can't be trusted.

-- Courtney Lee: Already 30 years old, Lee has never averaged more than the 12 points per game he did in his second season when he played for the Nets. He is inconsistent game to game with his shooting and doesn't provide enough of a scoring presence. He is the best of the group defensively, but the Knicks need backcourt scoring and he doesn't given enough of it.

The rest of the shooting guard crew is uninspiring: Jamal Crawford, JR Smith, Afflalo, Manu Ginobli, Lance Stephenson, O.J. Mayo, and Kevin Martin.

There are only four top-tier shooting guards out there on the free agent market, which is another example why the class this offseason is fairly weak. Two of them are restricted free agents. Beal's injury history would probably scare me away. DeRozan will likely get max money, but his defensive issues and lack of 3-point shooting would give me pause. Batum would be the best addition in terms of a player that lacks major flaws in his game. Fournier might be the best value, but his defensive issues would make me want to limit my offer. The latter two would be my first choices.

In the end, there is no perfect solution for the Knicks to replace Afflalo, but they will have a chance to make an upgrade if they are willing to spend, and convince DeRozan, Beal, Batum or Fournier to come aboard.

For everything Knicks, Giants and the world of sports, please follow John on Twitter at @Schmeelk

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