Palladino: Chapman Will Make Good Bait For Fishing At Trade Deadline
By Ernie Palladino
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So many things can still happen in the course of the Yankees' season that it's hard to predict how they might look come the July trade deadline.
That never stopped anybody from speculating, though. So here's a prediction, purely based on their current circumstances.
Brian Cashman will be a seller.
And the biggest piece of bait on his fish hook will be Aroldis Chapman.
MORE: Keidel: Bumbling Yankees Can't Afford To Sit Idle, Must Explore Trades
As much sense as it made to pick up the closer for a song in the offseason, it will be even more beneficial to unload him to a bullpen-needy contender on or before July 31. It's no secret that the Yanks need to get younger all over, and Chapman is just the kind of reliever who can bring an organization a young veteran or a cluster of good-looking prospects.
Cashman may be reluctant to give up a guy who gives the Yanks an awesome bullpen. They have already seen the benefits of having folks like Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances setting him up. His rare blown save Sunday in Baltimore ended a run of 25 straight wins the Yanks had when leading after seven innings.
As impressive as his 10 saves in that streak were, one wonders if the results wouldn't have been the same had the Yanks kept intact last year's setup-closer progression of Betances and Miller. Miller, as evidenced by his 3-0 record and 1.09 ERA, has done a fine job of disposing of eighth-inning batters, striking out 45 in 24 2/3 innings. And despite a tough seven-game stretch that has seen him go 1-2 with a 7.04 ERA, Betances remains a formidable bullpen force.
So Chapman will soon become a Mercedes the Yanks (28-30) may no longer be able keep in their ramshackle garage. Unless the housing itself somehow overhauls itself into a run-producing machine, the Bombers will probably follow the same path they have so far. And that translates into hovering around .500, a level they haven't touched since moving to 22-22 on May 24.
A game or two over even won't get them a wildcard berth, much less the division lead that remained 6 ½ games distant of Baltimore after Tuesday's 6-3 win over the Angels.
Even that may take a bit of doing.
This is a hurting team. Mark Teixeira may yet need surgery on the torn knee cartilage that landed him on the disabled list. Dustin Ackley is out for the season with a shoulder injury. Brian McCann is playing through a sore elbow. And Alex Rodriguez is only just now starting to show signs of life after a shaky start.
Though youngster Rob Refsnyder is making a wonderful impression with the big club, the situation below is less than ideal. Greg Bird, of course, is out for the season. And the whispers on top prospect Aaron Judge's struggles at Triple-A hint that he may have hit a talent plateau. So Cashman shouldn't expect any quality help from the minors.
These are not the kind of conditions that lead to postseason berths.
Add to that Chapman's impending free agent status after this season. Left-handers who throw 100 mph tend to attract a lot of dollars. Cashman will have to go deep into the pocket if he decides to re-sign him.
On the other hand, he'd make an ideal, two-month rental for someone in need of that one piece to complete a wildcard or division push.
Let somebody else deal with his future.
The idea of a power triumvirate that looked so enticing in the offseason appears that it will turn into a needless luxury a month from now. Recent outbursts like the eight-run, 16-hit explosion at Camden Yards last Saturday or Monday's three-homer win against the Angels facilitated by Carlos Beltran's three-run, eighth-inning blast represent flashes, not consistency. Beltran and Starlin Castro contributed homers in Tuesday's 6-3 win, the Yanks' second straight.
It looks nice, as if Joe Girardi's gang is about to turn a corner. But his roster as currently constituted won't produce the type of day-to-day offense representative of a playoff team.
Assuming the worst, Cashman should be a willing seller at the trade deadline.
If he's smart, he'll dangle Chapman out there and hope "The Cuban Missile" draws a bountiful catch that can feed the Yanks well into the future.
Follow Ernie on Twitter at @ErniePalladino
