Friedman: Despite Perceived Issues, Islanders' Offense Is Doing Just Fine
By Daniel Friedman
» More Columns
By virtually all accounts, the New York Islanders have turned in a fine performance over the first 18 games of the season.
Their early defensive and goaltending woes appear to have been solved, and they're finding ways to win hockey games. They've won 12 and have beaten elite opponents, including Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose, Tampa Bay Boston and the Rangers.
Oddly enough, the Isles have done all this despite the fact that John Tavares hasn't quite been himself, though he has still been very good. Head coach Jack Capuano is still looking for the right fit to play the shotgun role on Tavares' line, a role previously occupied by Thomas Vanek and Matt Moulson.
Capuano's latest maneuver to try to get that line going is a bit puzzling. Brock Nelson has been moved up to play on Tavares' left, which makes a lot of sense. At the same time, however, Kyle Okposo has been switched to the second line, with Nikolay Kulemin taking his place. That doesn't make a lot of sense.
I like the decision to put Nelson with Tavares; I just think Okposo should be there, too. Kulemin doesn't seem to be a good fit on that line, from what we've seen. He's better off playing with Frans Nielsen and Mikhail Grabovski.
It's not something that will prevent the Islanders from winning games, but it's not the most effective way to piece this roster together. It's about getting the most out of your star players. Okposo will produce on another line, but he won't be as good as he could be (and has been) with Tavares.
Some things are better off left alone. Tavares and Okposo haven't been dominant, but they've been good enough that you stick with that combo and let them work out the kinks.
Everyone's suddenly been convinced that the offense is struggling. Heck, both Tavares and Okposo have 18 points in 18 games and everyone thinks they're struggling.
Some have suggested the Isles should make a trade for a scoring winger. If the right deal comes along that's one thing, but it's not a necessity. Contrary to popular belief, the offense is doing well, even despite all its "issues."
Besides, if the main concern with the top line is that it hasn't been good enough defensively, how would bringing in a scoring winger fix that? And if it's production you're worried about, how's a defensive-minded winger going to fix that?
Fortunately, the Islanders have the answers to these questions right under their noses. I have little doubt they'll be able to find the right guy to play with Tavares. They have a multitude of in-house options, whether it's Nelson, Anders Lee or Ryan Strome.
As for the first line's defensive struggles, that is a legitimate concern. The root of the problem (and the way to fix it) is less complex than it appears to be. It boils down to one key ingredient, and that's face-offs. Tavares is winning just 47.4 percent of his draws, and he simply needs to be better in that department.
Look at the star centers around the league and you'll notice that most of them are winning at least 50 percent of their face-offs. That's what you need from someone of that caliber and, right now, Tavares just isn't getting the job done.
That's a problem, because it means his line often has to either create a turnover or hope for a miscue in order to get puck possession. Naturally, that leads to more scoring chances and, ultimately, more goals for the opposing team while the first line is on the ice.
If Tavares can improve even a bit on face-offs, you'd see a noticeable difference. His line wouldn't be hemmed in its own zone or chasing as often because they'd have the puck.
The Islanders are currently fourth in the NHL in goals per game, averaging 3.11. They're 1oth in five-on-five scoring with 38 goals. They're among the top 10 in Corsi For and Fenwick For percentage at even strength and lead the NHL in both categories on the power play.
Their power play is now ranked 17th (18.9 percent), but it was ranked higher earlier on, which is why the decision to take Johnny Boychuk off the first unit was mind-boggling. That experiment didn't work out.
Tavares, Nelson and Okposo are all on pace for 82 points, and keep in mind that JT will almost certainly increase his production rate and finish with 90 or more. Boychuk's on pace for 56, Strome for 54, Nielsen for 53, Grabovski for 47, Josh Bailey for 44 and Kulemin for 40. Oh, and Michael Grabner's close to returning from an injury.
Yeah, I'd be very concerned ... if I were on the opposing team.
I'll say this: If the Islanders' offense is this prolific when it's "struggling," how dangerous will it be when it's in tip-top shape?
Follow Daniel Friedman on Twitter @DFriedmanOnNYI.
You May Also Be Interested In These Stories
