Schmeelk: Analyzing The Knicks' Delicate-But-Doable Rebuilding Process
By John Schmeelk
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Parsing the words of Phil Jackson and Derek Fisher over past week, it's abundantly clear that they are being pulled in two different directions as they embark upon the Knicks' rebuilding process over the next couple of years.
Left to their own devices, both men seem to have the correct approach. Fisher and Jackson spoke about patience and not getting the team trapped by bad contracts like those of Amar'e Stoudemire, Andrea Bargnani, and Raymond Felton. Understanding they might not be able to acquire a player like Marc Gasol, Jackson talked about putting together a high IQ and defense-oriented team that fit the triangle by spreading the Knicks' money around to a number of different mid-level free agents.
Both also spoke about patience, which probably means not spending all the team's resources this offseason, but instead maintaining flexibility for the 2016 offseason when new TV money hits the salary cap. Whether it ends up being a legitimate shot at Kevin Durant is irrelevant because the Knicks would be able to continue to build their team in a smart and balanced way after seeing what they have on the court next season.
In addition to slowly building the team through free agency, the Knicks would add a player in the draft this season in what will likely be a top three pick. That pick, however, no matter who it is, will need a couple of years to develop. This strategy would put the Knicks in a good position to be a very good team in 2016-2017, and then moving forward the franchise actually owns all of their first round picks, which offers them even more opportunities to improve.
Sounds perfect, right? Not so fast. On May 29, 2017, which would be during a deep playoff run, Carmelo Anthony turns 33. The last two years he dealt with shoulder injuries. This season, it is a knee problem that will likely shut him down at some point. The odds that this string of injuries ends this year and Anthony becomes a modicum of perfect health at 32 or 33 are no better than a long shot.
Without Anthony's ability to score, it makes the Knicks' ability to return to contender status in the next three years extremely difficult. The clock on his ability to provide consistent and elite play is ticking and the Knicks need to be careful not to miss their window with him. That was the risk they took by committing to him for five years this offseason, and the problem became even more front and center when this season's roster proved a complete tear-down and rebuild was all this team could do if it wanted to turn the franchise's fortunes around.
Jackson will have to perform a very delicate balancing act between rebuilding in a responsible way, and also putting together a good enough team to win with Anthony while he is still an elite scorer. If Jackson is wise, he will navigate towards his natural instinct to be patient and build responsibly. Trying to rush this thing together, just to win with Anthony, would risk putting the team back in the exact type of hole it has been in the last 10 years.
That's not to say the Knicks shouldn't try to win big with Anthony because they should, but it is more important for the franchise to still be on a good trajectory in four years when Anthony's contract is up, than to completely sell out to win in 2015 or 2016. That means not giving out a bad contract to an average player that will become toxic. That means not trading away future first round draft picks to win now.
The Knicks need to operate like a responsible franchise even if it means not selling out completely to win with Anthony. It's the only way to put the franchise back on a steady footing for decades and get out of this pattern of rapidly building up, failing, and then having to tear it all down for years at a time.
It's going to take a lot of discipline and patience from Jackson and Fisher to do this the right way. They'll be tempted to try to take the fast and easy way out. For the fans' sake, hopefully they don't give into that, or the Knicks' cycle will never change.
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