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Schmeelk: Only 1 Thing The Knicks Have Left To Do — Lose 4 More Games

By John Schmeelk
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On Thursday. Jahlil Okafor and Karl-Anthony Towns declared for the NBA draft, making two potential cornerstone players a real possibility for the Knicks in 2015. The two centers are expected to go first and second, and as Phil Jackson correctly put it when addressing season-ticket holders, two players like that can change the fortunes of a franchise.

That's where the Knicks stand now with four games remaining in the NBA season. They own the worst record in the NBA and are one game worse than the Minnesota Timberwolves. The worst team in the NBA has a 25 percent chance of landing the first pick in the NBA draft and a 21.5 percent chance of getting the second pick. That means if they finish with the league's worst record, there's a 46.5 percent chance the Knicks will get the first or second pick in the draft. There's an 18 percent chance they'd get the third pick and a 36 percent chance they'd get the fourth.

Whatever team finishes with the second-worst record in the league has a 38.7 percent chance of landing one of the top two picks in the draft (19.9 percent and 18.8 percent, respectively). There's a 17.1 percent chance they finish with the third pick, 31.9 percent the fourth pick and 12.3 percent the fifth pick. There's a 61.3 percent chance of finishing out of the top two, as opposed to a 53.5 percent chance for the team with the worst record. If the two teams finish with the same record, the odds are combined and are averaged out.

That means if the Knicks drop to the second-worst record in the league, they have a 7.8 percent smaller chance of getting one of the two big men. If they tie with the Timberwolves, the chance decreases by 3.9 percent. Now that the waterfall of numbers I just tossed on you probably has you drowning, I'll summarize it this way: if the Knicks know what's good for them, they should not win another game this year.

The Knicks have four games left. They play Friday night against the Bucks at Madison Square Garden, and then at Orlando as the second half of a back to back on Saturday night. Milwaukee is still fighting for playoff position, but the Magic are playing out the string. On Monday the Knicks play in Atlanta, which has already clinched the top spot in the East, and then they host the Pistons to close out the season next Wednesday. One can argue all those games are winnable, given the current state of their opponent's seasons.

The Timberwolves play some better competition. The game they have the best chance of winning comes Friday night in Los Angeles. The next night the Wolves play at Golden State, which might be resting its players since it clinched the top record in the league. They finish their season at home against the Pelicans and Thunder next Monday and Wednesday. It might change by next week, but right now those two teams are tied for the eighth spot in the Western Conference playoffs and should be trying desperately to win.

There's a good chance the Timberwolves won't win another game this season. The Knicks need to make sure they do the same. I say all of this tongue-in-cheek, of course. Athletes are not wired to lose on purpose. Most of the players on the Knicks' roster are playing not only for pride, but for their NBA careers. A lot of the players on the Knicks are trying to put enough good play on tape to earn a contract in the league next year.

But from a fan's perspective, enduring a season that has been as bad as this one only to throw away the best chance of landing a top pick in the final four games would be painful and demoralizing. Even with the worst record, there is less than a coin flip's chance to get a top-two pick, but it's better than having an under-40 percent shot. Nothing is certain. In the end, as Jackson would say, the basketball gods (and the auditors from Ernst and Young) will decide what ping pong balls come out of that big, clear plastic container.

The last time the Knicks had any luck in the lottery came in the 1985 draft, when they were given the opportunity to select Patrick Ewing. But while the Knicks can't control the fate of the lottery (I'm looking at you, Adam Silver), they can lose their next four games and give the gods of luck some help.

The Knicks have already lost 63 games this season. What's four more?

You can follow me on Twitter @Schmeelk for everything Knicks, Giants and the world of sports.  

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