Silverman: Rangers Are Poised For First-Round Rout Of Disjointed Penguins
By Steve Silverman
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A couple of weeks ago, it looked like the Rangers would face off against the red-hot Ottawa Senators or the stumbling Boston Bruins in the first round.
As the Senators continued to surge in the season's final games, they made it all the way to the seventh seed. The Bruins fell apart in the final week of the season and they didn't even make the playoffs. That gives the Presidents' Trophy-winning Rangers an opportunity to dominate the Pittsburgh Penguins in the first round.
A year ago, the Penguins had their way with the Rangers for the first four games of the series as they took a 3-1 lead. The Rangers had shown very little, and there were no indications that they would do anything but say goodbye in the fifth game. However, New York rolled to three straight wins and made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final before losing to the Los Angeles Kings.
This year, there are no Kings to contend with. The defending champions were a one-step-forwards, two-step-backwards kind of team, and were left on the outside of the playoffs looking in by the likes of the Vancouver Canucks, Winnipeg Jets and Calgary Flames.
The Stanley Cup playoffs are as wide open this year as they have ever been, and the teams receiving the most support among the experts in the media include the Rangers, the Chicago Blackhawks and the Montreal Canadiens.
If the Rangers are going to lift the Cup for the first time since 1994, their first test is not likely to come until the conference semifinal round against either the Islanders or Capitals.
The Rangers should have an easy assignment in the first round against the Penguins. This team has the built-in excuse of injuries (Kris Letang, Christian Ehrhoff, Derrick Pouliot, Olli Maata and Pascal Dupuis) as the series gets underway, but the coaching/GM change that Pittsburgh made at the end of last season has not worked. After firing Ray Shero and Dan Bylsma, the team has regressed under Jim Rutherford and Mike Johnston.
Johnston appears incapable of leading this team, and his players pay him little mind. Sidney Crosby (28 goals and 56 assists) is still one of the most talented stars in the league, but Evgeni Malkin (28 goals, 42 assists) had little to offer down the stretch. Malkin was held to three assists in his final 10 games of the season. When he was knocked to the ice in the season's penultimate game against the Islanders, he got up slowly, slunk to the bench and was passive for the rest of the game.
The Rangers should be able to get past the Penguins in four or five games, even though the Penguins have the analytical edge in three key categories. Pittsburgh is the better penalty killing team, as it ranked third after stopping 84.8 percent of opponents' power plays. The Rangers ranked sixth with an 84.3 percent success rate. The Penguins limited opponents to 52.8 shot attempts per game (eighth) while the Rangers allowed 55.7 attempts per game (16th). Finally, the Penguins averaged 54.7 shot attempts (13th) when trailing, while the Rangers had 53.7 shot attempts (20th) in the same situation.
There is little reason to worry, however. In addition to being the better and more cohesive team, the Rangers have Henrik Lundqvist in goal, while the Pens have Marc-Andre Fleury. We're not here to raise Lundqvist to king status as he continues to get back to top form, but we are here to bury Fleury.
He has been off-the-charts horrible in his last three playoff years. Fleury had a revolting 4.63 goals-against average and an .834 save percentage in the 2012 playoffs, and he followed that with a 3.52 GAA and .883 mark in 2013. It got a tad better last year as he had a 2.40 GAA and a .915 save percentage, but Fleury still gave up the key goals, and his inability to make big saves against the Rangers cost his team in the second round.
Look for Rick Nash, Derick Brassard, Derek Stepan, Marty St. Louis and Mats Zuccarello to torch him repeatedly.
After the Rangers get past the Penguins, it will get tougher. Here's how we see the rest of the NHL's first round playing out.
New York Islanders over Washington in six games – John Tavares will provide the clutch scoring, while Johnny Boychuk has the blue-line leadership covered.
Ottawa over Montreal in seven games – Senators' late-season surge continues as quickness and aggressiveness gives them edge over Habs.
Tampa Bay over Detroit in five games – Red Wings have young talent, but the combination of Stamkos and Bishop is too much for Mike Babcock's team.
Minnesota over St. Louis in seven games – The Blues get Dubnyked and their postseason frustration continues.
Chicago over Nashville in six games – Blackhawks get ready for one more run with Toews and Kane. Preds don't have the star power to match up.
Winnipeg over Anaheim in seven games – Jets have the size and mean streak to upset Ducks.
Calgary over Vancouver in six games – Flames have been a spectacular third-period team in the regular season, and it continues in the playoffs.
