Schmeelk: Examining The Knicks' Free-Agency Options
By John Schmeelk
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As the first round of the NBA playoffs churns onwards, the Knicks are still plotting their offseason plans. Phil Jackson is watching players like Marc Gasol, Jimmy Butler, LaMarcus Aldridge and Draymond Green, all of whom (or none of which) could be targets of the Knicks this summer.
Without the NBA draft lottery taking place yet, there's still no telling who the Knicks might get in the draft, which makes specific planning in free agency no more than a fool's errand. But discussing general approach and strategy is something the Knicks should either be considering, or have already decided on.
The entire goal this offseason is maximizing the team's assets. Whether that asset is a draft pick, salary-cap money or the talent already on the roster, Jackson needs to get the most out of all of them. That means not throwing bad dollars at big names or trading their first-round pick for a bloated contract.
MAXING OUT
Jackson has iterated on more than one occasion that he won't be hunting around for a max player this offseason. Odds are Jackson said this mostly because he is trying to soften the blow for Knicks fans when their top targets decide to stay with their current team for more years and money than the Knicks are allowed to offer.
There could be as many as a half-dozen or more max contracts given out to unrestricted free agents this offseason, though in the long run few will be worth the money paid. Even with the salary cap going up the next two offseason, having Greg Monroe locked up at $17 million or more per season for half a decade is not going to lead to a championship. There are some exceptions, like Gasol, but even the top unrestricted free agents this offseason all have questions marks.
Players that fall into this category: Gasol, Aldridge, Rajon Rondo, Monroe, DeAndre Jordan and Roy Hibbert.
Other guys have player options and can become free agents: LeBron James, Kevin Love, Dwayne Wade, Arron Afflalo, Luol Deng, Al Jefferson, Brook Lopez and Goran Dragic.
Finding bargains in the group will be near impossible, and a lot of these players will be on the wrong side of 30 next year as well. For now, I think the Knicks should stay away.
RESTRICTIONS ARE MADE TO BE BROKEN
Restricted free agency is where a lot of the action might be for the Knicks this offseason. There are a number of budding young stars that will be restricted free agents this offseason that are far more likely to provide long-term value than some of the unrestricted veterans.
There are a number of problems with pursuing restricted free agents. For one, opposing teams can offer a maximum qualifying offer, which is a five-year contract at max dollars and 7.5 percent annual raises. A max qualifying offer would prevent the Knicks from offering a one-year deal that might be enticing to these young players due to the expanding salary cap. Teams have three days to match any offer sheet the Knicks might make, and that waiting period would put the Knicks' pursuit of other big free agents in a waiting period in which they could lose out on other potential targets.
The payoff is obvious: getting extremely talented young players locked up long-term for money that will look reasonable under what is going to be a salary cap that might rise by upwards of 60 percent over the next two offseasons.
All of these players could be worth maximum qualifying offers: Kawhi Leonard, Butler, Green and Brandon Knight.
These guys could be had for less: Reggie Jackson, Khris Middleton, Tobias Harris, Jae Crowder and Enes Kanter.
Despite the drawbacks, the Knicks might find the most bang for their buck here. Any of the first four names above would be great additions, even at maximum contracts. The second group could be had for midrange money (Middleton and Jackson for more than the others).
SHOPPING IN THE DISCOUNT AISLE
These guys aren't likely going to get less than $5 million per year, but they should be had for salaries starting in the $3 million to $8 million range.
They should be able to provide better value than some of the max contracts mentioned earlier: Wesley Matthews (thanks to his torn Achilles), Robin Lopez, Thaddeus Young, Kosta Koufos, Gerald Green, Jared Dudley, Bismack Biyombo, Mike Dunleavy, Al-Farouq Aminu, Austin Rivers and Brandan Wright.
We'll break down the above players more specifically moving forward, but if I were the Knicks I would do my best to score one of the top restricted free agents and then spend the rest of the cap space in the discount aisle, understanding some of those players might not be discounts at all. The Knicks have a lot of options, and they desperately need to use the next two months to figure out the best path for the franchise.
You can follow me on Twitter @Schmeelk for everything Knicks, Giants and the world of sports.
