Palladino: Mets Need To Stop Piling Up The 'Next Years'
By Ernie Palladino
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Mets fans, you're on alert.
Get ready for the fireworks in 2016.
Twenty-sixteen? Hang on a second. Wait just a goldarned minute. What happened to 2015? Wasn't this the corner-turning season where everything would come together and fulfill Sandy Alderson's dream of a budget-conscious playoff contender?
As per New York Post columnist Kevin Kernan's recent appearance on WFAN, some well-embedded front office sources told him everybody behind the glass doors point to 2016 as the Mets' true "coming out" season. Though nobody seem to talk about the chronically punchless lineup, aforementioned sources figure the pitching will be in place, with lefty Steve Matz joining Harvey, a rehabbed Zack Wheeler, Jacob deGrom in a talent-rich rotation.
None of this constitutes new stuff. Only last year, Alderson said things would be different this year, as in 2015, which was next year at that point. And now that the suits await yet another big "next year," one wonders if those pyrotechnics won't really go off until they throw a quinceanera for that mountain of next years.
It would be far more comforting for everyone if the front-office gang put their souls toward this year, or Alderson's next year of last year if one chooses to look at it that way. The current situation isn't exactly hopeless, after all. Despite Tuesday's no-hitter and Wednesday's bombardment of Matt Harvey, the Mets are atop the NL East -- a half-game above the Nationals -- and three games over .500. Given their history over the past eight years, the standings alone offer reason for optimism.
However, two troubling issues loom that could produce yet another depressing spiral down the standings. One involves the statistical instrument Alderson used brilliantly in his tenure as Oakland's GM. The other is the effect of Tommy John surgery on Harvey.
Alderson all but lived and died by on-base and OPS (on-base plus slugging) in Oakland and profited well by it between 1983 and '97. Fueled by people like Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire and Walt Weiss, the A's won four division titles, three pennants and the 1989 World Series under Alderson's stewardship.
Though it all, he found offensive players who could get on base. Even when Canseco and McGwire weren't knocking down the walls, folks like Weiss and, the last 85 games of '89, the inimitable Rickey Henderson helped manufacture runs by simply getting on base.
The Mets still don't have that kind of collection. Going into Thursday, their on-base percentage sat 21st in the league at .305. Worse still was the OPS, which ranked 27th at .676.
They're 11 points worse in on-base percentage than last year's .316, which they finished in 20th place. By the way, that was the next year the year before, which Alderson said was supposed to produce 90 wins.
Didn't happen.
That season's OPS was a 23rd-worst .701, which is still 25 points higher than what they're producing now.
Of course, they don't have David Wright and Daniel Murphy in the lineup right now, though Travis d'Arnaud did have a productive comeback from the DL Wednesday with a double and two runs scored. And it's good that Curtis Granderson has shown some power of late.
Unfortunately, Wilmer Flores, the guy Alderson was perfectly fine with at shortstop during the offseason, has proven himself an all-or-nothing type with eight homers but only a .279 OBP and a .698 OPS, ranking him 13th and ninth on the team, respectively. Still, he represents the only pop on the left side of the infield. Even if Alderson does pull off a reported trade effort for Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez, the slumping 36-year-old may have only limited impact on the offense.
This offense may never get fixed. Until it is, the next years will keep piling up.
Then there is the case of Harvey, the Dark Knight opponents have lit up for 20 runs in his last 25 innings. The 7.20 ERA over those four games is hardly a condemnation of his 6-4, 3.62 season, but it does beg the question of whether a year of Tommy John rehab has affected his long-range prospects.
It is entirely possible that Alderson and the general public have put unrealistic expectations on Harvey. Right now, he is inconsistent at best. Which means he's human, a couple of big notches down from superhero.
A mortal Harvey can still help the Mets, as long as the hitting gets going. But so far, the numbers indicate that the offense will remain as inconsistent as ever: nine runs in four losses to the Padres and Diamondbacks last week, no-hit Tuesday, not good enough Wednesday before a win on Thursday.
It's too early to give up on this season yet. The Mets are right there, for now, in the hunt.
But the season isn't half-done yet, and ominous signs appear over the horizon.
The suits could be right. If it doesn't happen this year, then 2016 could be the year. And if not then, well, you know how it goes with the Mets.
