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Schmeelk's 2015 NBA Draft Big Board: 1-15

By John Schmeelk
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This is my big board for the 2015 NBA draft.

(NOTE: Keep in mind that I am looking at the draft from the perspective of the Knicks' front office.)

Tier One – We Might Have Something Special (Potential Superstars)

  1. Karl-Anthony Towns: Other than rim protection, he didn't show any elite skills at Kentucky, but he also doesn't have any glaring weakness in his game. He's destined to be an elite two-way center who will be able to shoot and pass far better than he did at Kentucky.
  1. Jahlil Okafor: There are legitimate concerns about his defense on pick and rolls, rim protection and free-throw shooting, but those are three things -- especially the latter two -- that can improve over time. What Okafor has is the best low-post game and footwork coming out of college since Tim Duncan. He will be a 20-point scorer and will demand a double-team.  I'm higher on him than others.
  1. D'Angelo Russell: A perfect combo guard, Russell can shoot the lights out and he sees the floor better than any draft prospect has in a long time. He should be able to pass and score right away in the NBA, and should excel in the pick and roll right away. His defense, much like Okafor's, is very questionable, but his wingspan should allow him to be solid on that end of the floor.


Tier Two – These guys are going to help the team win. They're either top-end role playerer or potential All-Stars. I'd be fine with the Knicks selecting anyone in this group, except for Willie Cauley-Stein, who I think is a reach at four. Trading down as far as eight is also something I'd be totally fine with the Knicks doing.

  1. Justise Winslow: Winslow sits atop the third tier for me because, even in a worst-case scenario in which he doesn't improve on his faults (shooting off the dribble, getting around quicker defenders), he will be an excellent defensive player and a great intangible guy. No one in this draft will work harder, and I'm more sure he will be a good two-way player than anyone else in this tier. I worry about his deficiencies less than other players. The Knicks can't miss on this pick, and Winslow will not be a miss. I'm taking the safe way here, and I'm OK with that.
  1. Mario Hezonja: He might have the most complete offensive game of any player in the draft. He has good size at 6-foot-8, can shoot and can drive. He has flashed good play on defense but is inconsistent. What scares me is that he might be a "me-first" guy on offense, and that's hard to fix in a player. His shot selection is poor and I've seen the word "chucker" thrown around. Will he help promote team play? His brash confidence might not rub people the right way, either.
  1. Kristaps Porzingis: This guy has been all over the place on my board, and was as high as number four just a couple of days ago. He might be back there again if I do this on Wednesday. He can shoot, is a good athlete and does things that are Kevin Durant-esque for his size. There is, however, a lot of development that still has to happen, and not just with his body. He needs to get stronger, become a better creator with the ball in his hands and become a better decision-maker. He may very well be the second best player in the draft when all is said and done, but that requires a lot of projection, which to me is too risky for the Knicks.
  1. Emmanuel Mudiay: I'm not as high on Mudiay as others, and it isn't because of his jump shot or limited playing time in China. I don't see the elite, John Wall-level athleticism that others do. I watched a 6-foot-9 defender stay in front of him in the CBA playoffs. He also struggled to explode and finish to the rim in those games. I don't think his ceiling is quite as high as other people do. I'm going away from the consensus on him, and trusting my eyes instead.
  1. Willie Cauley-Stein: He will probably be the best defender in this draft, an already elite skill we know will translate to the NBA. But he could also be an absolute zero on offense when he isn't finishing on the break or on offensive rebounds. He has flashed a nice jumper and handle in workouts, but he hasn't shown it in a game. He is at the end of tier two because his chance of being a real liability at one end is higher than the other players on this list.


Tier Three – Should be a good rotational player and perhaps something more

  1. Frank Kaminsky: I'm higher on Kaminsky than most because I am convinced he will be an excellent offensive player in the NBA. He can shoot it from NBA three-point range, would be too quick for NBA centers and should be able to post up NBA power forwards. Unfortunately, I'm not sure who he will ever be able to guard effectively on defense. I also don't think he'll be better than he was in college. We've seen his peak already.
  1. Myles Turner: Given his issues against better competition in college, it might be a slow adjustment to the NBA, but he has a lot of tools. With a 7-foot-4 wingspan he should be an excellent rebounder and shot blocker, and he has a shooting touch that could extend to the arc. He is not a great athlete, nor is he strong enough to live in the post -- yet.
  1. Cameron Payne: He's very good at shooting pull-ups off the pick and roll and getting into the lane. He lacks the explosive athleticism to finish, where he struggled, but is shifty enough to work his way into the lane to shoot an impressively consistent floater. He should be a solid pro point guard.
  1. Devin Booker: Perhaps the best shooter in the draft, I saw flashes of athleticism in college that tell me he might be able to get to the basket better as a pro. At worst, he is a floor-stretching two guard who is smart but lacks the ability to create his own shot.
  1. Trey Lyles: He's a fluid but not very explosive athlete who played out of position at SF at Kentucky. He should develop a good jumper over time, though it was inconsistent in college. He can drive it at times, but struggled creating his own offense. He also showed inconsistent effort/toughness on the boards.
  1. Stanley Johnson: He is the perfect size (6-foot-7, 240 pounds) for a stretch power forward or traditional small forward, but too many red flags have dropped him on my board. Despite having all the traits to be a top defender, he often lags on that end. He improved as a shooter but isn't elite. He also lacks the explosiveness to finish at the rim. I think he has a relatively high floor, but also a low ceiling.
  1. Bobby Portis: He doesn't have a very developed game but he plays with great effort, and at 6-foot-11 and 246 pounds, he has great size. He should be an excellent defender, and he has a decent mid-range jumper. He's not an explosive athlete.
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