By Abraham Gutierrez
Given the long history between the (4-4) Buffalo Bills and (5-3) New York Jets, it comes as no surprise that this Thursday night’s meeting marks the 110th time these bitter rivals have crossed paths. In their first clash of the 2015 NFL season, second place in the AFC East will be up for grabs as Rex Ryan visits his old stumping grounds on Thursday Night Football on NFL Network (Kickoff: 8:25 p.m. ET).
And while Buffalo comes in leading the head-to-head series, 58-51-0 – including being in the midst of a three-game win streak – the hosting Jets are the team to beat according to NFL betting oddsmakers. As of Wednesday morning, NFL Week 10 point spreads dictate that Todd Bowles’ Jets (-2½) are listed as slight favorites to defeat their intrastate foes by just under a field goal (+2½).
Bills vs. Jets Recent ATS Series History
Without a doubt, there are some interesting ATS statistics to note prior to deciding to bet on Buffalo or New York against the spread. The first figure that jumps out is that, despite being known mostly as defensive juggernauts, the last few meetings between these clubs have been high-scoring affairs, regardless of where these games have taken place.
In the last five meetings at MetLife Stadium, the OVER has yielded a winning bet every single time, as well as in seven of their last seven encounters overall (5-2). Thus, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the home team is 5-1 heading into this game, but that stat could be deceiving because Buffalo has tipped the scales in its favor as of late by covering the spread in four of those five contests.
Thursday Night Football Week 10 ATS Consensus
Given the way both teams have played thus far this season, most bettors believe that Gang Green is more than capable to cover a -2½ spread at home. That’s because as of Wednesday morning, 56 percent of all wagers have been in favor of the ATS favorite Jets.
In contrast, only 44 percent of the betting world likes Rex Ryan’s chances of going into East Rutherford, New Jersey, and coming away with either a win, or worst-case scenario, a loss of a field goal or less. As far as the projected point-total goes, 58 percent of wagers registered until this point favor the OVER, while 42 percent of bettors beg to differ.
In this day and age, NFL betting is all about the “What Have You Done For Me Lately” notion. Thus, it’s worth taking a look at how each team has performed against the spread as it relates, not only as of late, but against the rest of the league – not only versus one another.
Buffalo Bills Recent ATS Trends (NFL Week 10)
For those looking to put their hard-earned money on the Bills, there’s mostly good news. Going by their most recent ATS trends, Buffalo is 4-1 in its last five intradivisional (AFC East) contests, 8-3 in its last 11 games after its defense has allowed more than 350 yards, and 7-3 after its offense has accumulated more than 350 yards the week prior.
The negative ATS statistics dictate that the Bills are just 2-5-1 in eight Week 10 contests, 5-13 following a straight-up win of 14 points or more, 6-19-1 following straight-up wins, and finally, this team is winless in their last four games after an ATS cover.
NY Jets Recent ATS Trends (NFL Week 10)
In the case of the hosting Jets, pro-Gang Green bettors appear to have a green light to wager away, this based on multiple betting categories. For starters, much like the Bills, this team has been consistent in covering the spread against AFC East opponents, sporting a record of 4-0-1 in a handful of games.
Unlike the Bills, the Jets are 5-1-1 after allowing more than 350 yards, 4-1 after an ATS loss, 4-1-1 following a straight-up win and 7-2-1 in their last 10 games versus the American Football Conference. Also worth noting is that the bright lights don’t intimidate these Jets, as they come in with a 5-2 record in Thursday Night Football games, as well as in their last seven home games overall.
NFL Thursday Night Football Week 10 Predictions: New York Jets -2½
Abe Gutierrez’s (Twitter: @GutierrezAbe) passion led him to ditch law school journey in order to launch his own publishing company. His expertise make him a valued addition to Examiner.com, AXS.com and the CBS-Sports family. Some of his work can be found on CBS-Miami (Dolphins), CBS-LosAngeles (Chargers), CBS-BayArea (Raiders), CBS-NewYork (NY Jets), CBS-TampaBay (Buccaneers), AXS.com, Examiner.com and other online publications.