Schmeelk: The Pros And Cons Of The Knicks Going Small
By John Schmeelk
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The Knicks and head coach Derek Fisher are still trying to figure out the best way to use their big men to get the most out of the roster on both ends of the floor. When the Knicks signed Robin Lopez in the offseason, they were likely anticipating it would take Kristaps Porzingis a few years to be physically prepared to play center. The good news is that he is ahead of schedule. The bad news is that Lopez's presence is keeping Porzingis out of the position where he can have his biggest impact offensively.
Fisher is really in a catch-22 situation. The Knicks play some of their best defense with both Porzingis and Lopez on the floor, allowing a full two points fewer per 100 possessions when they play together. Both have been essential cogs in the Knicks' pick-and-roll defense. They both challenge shots near the rim and encourage offensive players to pull up for lower-percentage mid-range shots. With Lopez anchoring the paint, Porzingis is athletic and long enough to guard power forwards on the perimeter and close out on shooters. Their combined length makes it very hard for opponents to get high-percentage shots at the rim and get offensive rebounds.
On offense, however, the team scores a point fewer per possession when they play together. With Lopez's limited offensive game, he hurts spacing and makes it more difficult to effectively utilize Porzingis as a screener in pick-and-rolls plays. With the rookie's ability to hit the mid-range jump shot and finish near the basket, his potential as a pick-and-roll player is through the roof. Porzingis can also utilize his quickness and athleticism against bigger players. Lopez's presence is limiting the team's ability to use Porzingis that way.
Friday night could prove to be a great testing ground as to whether or not Porzingis can play center for large periods defensively. Jahlil Okafor, even as a rookie, is one of the better post-up players in the league. If Porzingis can hold up against him, there's no reason to think he can't play that position more regularly. Whether or not he can sustain his rebounding for an entire game playing center is another question, but it's something the Knicks should experiment with.
In the end, however, moving Lopez to the bench and playing small will probably help the Knicks far more than it will hurt them. It would move Carmelo Anthony over to power forward, where he will have to fight through fewer screens and chase quicker players less frequently. It would also set up more mismatches for him offensively. Anthony's best season for the Knicks was three years ago, when he played mostly power forward for Mike Woodson.
Fisher would have different options in configuring the rest of the lineup. He could simply insert Langston Galloway and move Arron Afflalo to small forward. Or he could leave Afflalo at shooting guard and start Lance Thomas at small forward. I would consider moving Afflalo to the bench to provide a scoring punch with the second unit, and starting Thomas and Galloway to boost the defense of the starting five. Jose Calderon is still the biggest liability for the team defensively, so the hope would be the team could mitigate that weakness by putting him on the floor with the team's best defensive players.
No matter how Fisher sets up the starting five, with Porzingis at center the team would spread the floor and be much better offensively. Porzingis has a bigger positive impact on the offense than any other player on the team spare Afflalo, and playing him at center should only exacerbate that. He would be the primary screener on pick and rolls and run some center off-screens to get open jump shots. In the Knicks' two most commonly used lineups with Porzingis at center and Anthony at power forward, the Knicks' pace increases by a few possessions and their offensive rating goes up by more than 16 and 23 points.
With 50 minutes on the floor between the two lineups, the sample size is big enough to think there might be something there. The defense does get worse (by 3-5 points per 100 possessions), but the negative effect there is far smaller than the offensive uptick.
The drawback of moving Lopez to the bench would be the domino effect on the rest of the Knicks' big men. They already have a lot of big men coming off the bench with Thomas, Derrick Williams, Kyle O'Quinn and Kevin Seraphin. Putting Lopez with the second unit full-time could banish one or more of those players to the bench more times than not. O'Quinn has been playing well and has earned more minutes, but then Williams would have to play small forward. If that happens, where does Thomas go if he doesn't start?
He has been a pleasant surprise this year and deserves minutes. Williams is one of the few players who can push the tempo, and he speeds the Knicks up. It would call for some creative shuffling from Fisher, and even the NBA's most experienced coaches would struggle with that situation.
Unlike in past seasons when going small appeared to be an easy decision, there are legitimate positive and negatives no matter what Fisher decides. Having two starting-caliber centers is a good problem to have.
Lopez has had injury problems in the past, so chance might force Porzingis into the role of starting center anyway. For once the Knicks have options, which shows that Phil Jackson and Steve Mills have put together an improved roster.
You can follow me on Twitter @Schmeelk for everything Knicks, Giants and the world of sports.
