Murti: Yankees Should Strongly Consider Batting Ellsbury 6th In 2017
By Sweeny Murti
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To fix the Yankees' offense in 2017, you have to start at the top. The combination of Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner — no matter what order you put them in — is a failed experiment. A change is in order to help the lineup become more productive next year. But will the Yankees follow through?
The Yankees brought Ellsbury in to be a dynamic leadoff hitter. And by teaming with the speedy Gardner, they were going to be a perfect 1-2 combination that set up the boppers in the middle of the order.
Well, truth be told, the Yankees' main offensive struggles last season were due in large part to the sluggers who stopped slugging. But it is also true that the Ellsbury-Gardner combo just hasn't done what it was expected to do.
In his three years as a Yankee, Ellsbury has a .264 batting average, .326 on-base percentage and .382 slugging percentage (.708 OPS) and has averaged 136 games per season. While there have been nagging injuries, he has, for the most part, been spared of the long-term disabling injuries some fans feared when he first signed.
Over the same period, Gardner has averaged 149 games per season and posted a .259/.340/.395 slash line (.735 OPS).
The potential havoc on the base paths hasn't materialized because this duo simply hasn't been on base enough. The declining stolen base numbers for both players aren't really a big concern, since the Yankees' offense is built more for power than speed. The Yankees are more effective with fast and capable base runners who can go first to third or first to home, rather than stolen base threats.
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Again, the middle-of-the-order power outage is the biggest factor in the Yankees' offensive decline in 2016, but it's important to note that the table wasn't being set the way it was supposed to be when Ellsbury first signed three years ago. Also, Ellsbury and Gardner both turned 33 this year, so there is really little reason to believe that it's going to turn back the other way.
So how do you fix it? Here are the options:
A) Trade Ellsbury
This would open up so many possibilities because of the four years and $89 million left on his contract, but it's also the least likely option, and by a wide margin. There isn't a team in baseball that wants that contract.
B) Trade Gardner
This is at least more reasonable given there are only two years and $26 million left on his contract. But the ability to get significant return could be a problem. "He has negative trade value," one GM told me. "He's a speed guy on a corner losing his speed. He's got grit, that's fine. But to get someone to take that contract for that player, you'd have to eat some money or pair him with a legit prospect."
A second executive told me there is value for Gardner, but it is limited by the contract. "Money dump only," the executive said. "You're not going to get talent back."
C) Trade both
While this would eliminate the problem completely, the Yankees would then have to replace both outfielders. And as we've established, trading Ellsbury is impossible, so this is not a realistic option.
D) Keep both
This would seem the most realistic choice. So then the question becomes, where do you bat these two if you are stuck with both?
My solution? Keep Gardner in the leadoff spot and drop Ellsbury down to the six hole.
Gardner's OBP has been slightly higher than Ellsbury's, and he tends to see more pitches, which is important, especially early in the game against the starting pitcher. Ellsbury put the first pitch in play in 84 at-bats last season, while Gardner has done so just 97 times total the last three years.
Moving Ellsbury down in the order would be done so with the idea that he could take advantage of his power better. But Ellsbury came here to be the Yankees' leadoff hitter and has rarely batted outside the top third of the lineup. Making a move like this would have to begin by massaging Ellsbury's ego to soften the blow that he is not the same player he used to be.
A former big league manager told me that has to be done so Ellsbury believes the move is being made for his and the team's benefit, and that it's not a demotion for a player they have no choice but to play because of his contract.
"You have to eliminate the ego from the start," the ex-manager told me. "You have to tell him, 'This is about winning ballgames and finding ways to make you a bigger part of this.'"
So how do you go about telling him that? Show him the data and make Ellsbury believe he will be a major player in this offense if he gets into more RBI opportunities lower in the order.
"I would say, 'I want you to have a voice in how we can maximize your production. This has nothing to do with you personally. This has everything to do with you professionally,'" the former manager said.
Ellsbury's power to the pull side is evident. Another aspect to this is getting the hitting coaches involved to work with Ellsbury and tweak — not dramatically alter — his approach so he can drive the ball more frequently. He has not been a high average hitter for any of the last three years. It's time to see if he can help the team in a crucial spot in the batting order where opposing pitchers might start to relax after navigating bigger bats in the 3-4-5 slots.
Yankees manager Joe Girardi has been reluctant to break up the Gardner-Ellsbury combo, simply flipping Gardner back up from two to leadoff midway through last season. Now it's time to do something a little more drastic and try to get some value out of what is shaping up to be the worst contract in Yankees history.
Follow Sweeny on Twitter at @YankeesWFAN
