TIMELINE: Freezing Rain Expected To Make For Dangerous Friday Morning Commute

NEW YORK (CBSNewYork) -- The combination of rain and freezing temperatures could make for an icy commute Friday morning.

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The CBS2 Weather Team announced a red Alert Day for Friday. A winter weather advisory has been also issued for the northwest suburbs from 1 a.m. to 7 p.m.

THURSDAY NIGHT

We are on the warm side of a 2,000-mile-long cold front stretching from Texas to Maine. As the front pushes east over the next 24 hours, parts of our area are at high risk for dangerous icing. Most of the metro NYC area -- including Bergen, Passaic, Essex and Nassau counties -- will be mainly wet for the morning commute.

The good news is Thursday night will be so mild that it will take a longer time for the cold air to overwhelm the atmosphere, especially near the coastline. This will keep the ice accretion numbers lower around the city, if at all.

The first issue is rain and dense fog Thursday night. Low visibility and snowmelt are making for foggy conditions across the area. Rain continues overnight, with steadiness, and temps slowly start to drop well north after 1 a.m. Friday.

FRIDAY MORNING

As temps continue to drop throughout the day, the rain will turn to freezing rain, then a little sleet and snow from north to south.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON

Around noon in New York City, the frozen precipitation could take hold. Even though we're only looking at a potential glaze of ice, that's all it takes to cause problems. This would make the evening commute slick and potentially hazardous.

LINK: Winter Storm Survival Guide

Another issue -- no matter if you see freezing rain, or sleet, or just rain, we have the risk for a possible flash freeze. Arctic air on the back side will try to freeze any standing water, creating black ice.

FRIDAY NIGHT

It will feel much colder, with feels-like temperatures falling into the teens and single digits. There could also be sub-zero wind chills well north and west.

SATURDAY

Wake up temps Saturday morning are in the teens, so a flash freeze is possible on untreated roads for anybody.

WORST OF THE ICE?

Kingston stretching west across Orange County, down to northern Rockland/northern Westchester counties, are at the highest risk for a densely populated area to experience icy driving conditions. Yes, it will be worse at elevation and in some deep Catskill Mountain valleys, but it's sparsely populated, so hopefully those residents stay off the roads if possible

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