Hey, what do you know? We had a winning week. After a few weeks of living under the .500 mark we finally broke through. In Week 9 the favorites went 10-4 and the Vegas sports books got crushed (the public loves betting the favorites), so it’s no surprise that we managed to have a good week.
Week 9 picks went 8-5 (62%) and it moves our season percentage to 53%. Pretty good record considering we are picking every game. Let’s just hope we can keep it up. Went with an even mix of favorites and dogs this week, some big spreads with three favorites laying over 10 points. And five home dogs. Usually home dogs were a decent bet early in the season, but they have gone 6-10 the last 4 weeks (after starting the season 18-12 ATS).
Stay in the loop. I usually tweet out some picks on Sunday morning, so follow me on Twitter (@Fantasource) to get the latest.
Are you ready for another week of winners? Let’s do it…
Last Week: 8-5
Season Record: 56-48-2
Sunday, Nov. 11th
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-11, O/U 52)
For the second week in a row the Bills are double-digit underdogs on the road. Last week they went down to Houston as 10-point dogs and lost by 12 (21-9). This week they go up to Foxboro to play the Patriots, who are coming off of a bye week after a 45-7 shellacking of the Rams in London two weeks ago.
Both defenses are bad. The Over/Under is 52 points, but I think the Patriots will be able to slow down the Bills. The Bills will probably go to the run game this week, but the Patriots rush defense isn’t too bad. Expect the Pats to use Stevan Ridley more and more and I expect him to get some yards this week against a porous Bills rush defense. And that should be the difference.
Buffalo has lost 4 of their last 5 and now they are on the road for the second straight week against a division opponent coming off of a bye week.
This is called “Belichick shows everyone who owns the AFC East.” The Pats should cruise and cover the 11.
Pick: Patriots -11
New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals (+4, O/U 48 1/2)
The Giants defense is good. The Bengals defense is not. The Giants offense is good. The Bengals offense, while pretty potent, is not as statistically good as you might think. And the Giants are coming off of a loss at home to the Steelers and they’re only laying 4 points? I’ll go with Eli in this one.
The Bengals have lost two in a row at home, by 8 to the Broncos last week and by 7 to the Steelers in Week 7. They have lost 4 in a row straight up and against the spread. They are falling apart after a promising 3-1 start.
I’ll lay the points and say the Giants off of a tough home loss come into Cincy and win by 7+.
Pick: Giants -4
San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, O/U 47 1/2)
Yup, I’m doing it again. I’m going with the Chargers. I know, I never learn. Phil Rivers repeatedly blows games for me when I pick San Diego, but I’m doing it again.
I’m playing the odds here. First, everyone and their mother will be betting the Bucs this week. They blew the doors off the Raiders last week on the road, they are 6-3 with a very good defense, and they are playing at home. Second, I’m not really going out on a limb here when I say that Doug Martin will not rush for 800 yards and 6 touchdowns again, or whatever he put up last week. He is due to come back to earth.
The Chargers can score. They have put up 22 points or more in 6 of 8 games this season. I know the Bucs defense is good but they gave up 32 to the Raiders last week, and 35 to the Saints two weeks ago. So they can be scored upon.
I think the Chargers will get the road win and move to 5-4. And for one more week, Norv Turner saves his job.
Pick: Chargers +3
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (+3 1/2, O/U 47)
This game gets the “Fishy line of the Week” award. Denver is only laying 3 1/2? I know it is on the road but the Broncos are clearly the better team.
The only way the Panthers can hang in this game is with their pass defense, which isn’t half bad. They’ll need to slow down Peyton Manning, because if he can throw 3 touchdown passes (like he has done in Denver’s last 5 games) then the Broncos will win and cover.
I see another angle here. Broncos coach John Fox coached the Panthers for nine seasons, so this one is special for him. Not just another game. I think that could come into play as the Broncos players try to give their coach a nice homecoming win against his former employer.
I like Peyton to keep throwing TD’s and the Broncos to move to 6-3.
Pick: Broncos -3 1/2
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-6, O/U 44)
In four road games this season the Titans are 1-3 and have surrendered 34,30, 38 and 38 points. That’s not going to win you many games. And last week? No big deal. They just played the Bears at home and they gave up 51 points. Ouch.
Yeah, I’m going with the Dolphins in this one. Miami’s defense is very good all around, and it has the #3 rush defense, so they should be able to shut down Titans RB Chris Johnson. I just don’t see the Titans hanging in this one. Reggie Bush should have a nice game against a pretty weak Titans rush defense that gives up 141 yards per game on the ground.
Miami should be able to cover this line. Laying anything under a touchdown and I’m all over the Dolphins.
Pick: Dolphins -6
Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-7 1/2, O/U 46)
I kinda like the Raiders in this one. West coast teams coming east for an early game is never a good spot to be in, but I think that Oakland should be able to move the ball on the Ravens. Both teams are pretty even, so when the line is that high I have to take the points.
The Ravens have only won by 8 points or more twice this season, last week at Cleveland and week 1 against the Bengals. I expect the Raiders to give them a game here and keep it close.
You’re giving me the Raiders getting more than a touchdown? Ok, I’ll take it. This should be a high scoring game and I’ll take the points.
Pick: Raiders +7 1/2
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (+2, O/U 535)
Um, what? Atlanta is the underdog? The undefeated Falcons are going into New Orleans to play the Saints, who have the worst defense in the league. The Saints give up 471 yards of total offense per game this season, worst in the league, and more than 50 yards per game higher than the second worst team. And how many passing yards per game do they give up? How about 294? I expect a big game from Matt Ryan this week.
Atlanta’s strength on defense is against the pass, and that is the bread and butter of Drew Brees and the Saints. So, all that being said, I like the Falcons to cover. I’m sure the public will be all over Atlanta this week, but I can’t see a reason to take the Saints. I’ll take the points and say thank you.
Pick: Falcons +2
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (+2, O/U 47)
The big question in this game is whether Vikings WR Percy Harvin will play, and if he does play, can he contribute? Harvin suffered a sprained ankle last week against Seattle and may not play on Sunday. That is a big deal for the Vikings. Harvin is the main weapon in their passing game, and is a top special teams player.
With Harvin not playing at 100% the Lions will be able to key on RB Adrian Petersen more so than usual, and their 14th ranked rush defense should be up to the task.
The Lions lost to the Vikings 20-13 in Week 4, and this week they get their revenge. This could be the week that Calvin Johnson actually finds the endzone. I’ll take the Lions -2.
Pick: Lions -2
New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks (-6, O/U 38 1/2)
I’m going to do it. I’m going to pick against the Seahawks at home. Shocker! Everyone knows that the Seahawks are money at home, 4-0 straight up and against the spread this season. They covered at home last week as five point favorites against the Vikings.
But I say this is the week that the Seahawks get beat, or at least win a close game and not cover. I don’t know, I think the Jets defense is good, and I’m getting 6? I’ll take the points. I know the Seahawks are going to give it to Marshawn Lynch all day, and if the Jets can contain him then they can keep it close and cover the spread.
Pick: Jets +6
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (+1 1/2, O/U 441/2)
I am an Eagles fan and I can tell you this, the team is a mess. They’re 3-5, have lost 5 of their last 6, and the games have gotten more sloppy with each successive week. Yet, every week I pick them to cover. Hometown bias? Maybe, but I know they have the talent. They just can’t seem to get their heads out of their butts.
Now Dallas comes to town, also 3-5, also struggling, losing 4 of their last 5, also with a coach on the hot seat.
These teams are so similar that I am just going to make it easy on myself and pick the home team getting points. Yes, another week on the Eagles. And I promise if they break my heart this week I’m never picking them again. Maybe.
Pick: Eagles +1 1/2
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-11, O/U 38 1/2)
Everything in my bones says to take the 49ers. But I am hesitant to lay that many points against a division rival that has a good defense.
I know the 49ers are one of the best teams in the league, and have only given up more than 6 points in a game once in their past 5 games. And the Rams went over to London and got crushed by the Patriots, but I’ll say in this one they can keep it close. The game should be low scoring and I’ll take the points. I’m not saying the Rams can win, but they should be able to stay within 11.
Pick: Rams +11
Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-1, O/U 41)
This is the game of the week. Two of the top teams in the NFL. The Bears come into this game with the best defense in the league. The defense alone has scored 7 touchdowns and has 17 interceptions on the season. Wow. But if you look at the Bears schedule, they really have played only one good team this season. Week 2 at Green Bay, and they got beat 23-10. Their other games were against Carolina, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Dallas, Detroit, St Louis. Not a very tough lineup there.
The Texans defense is also very strong, second in the league (behind Chicago) and should be able to shut down Jay Cutler.
I like the Texans, on the road, to win this game. I think the Texans offense should be able to move the ball against the Bears and score points. The Bears offense is ranked 25th, so even though they put up 51 points at Tennessee last week, it was an anomaly. And the defense scored 2 of those touchdowns, and it was against a bad team.
Unless the Bears defense forces turnovers and gives Jay Cutler good field position all game long, I think the Texans can win this. I’ll take Houston.
Pick: Texans +1
Monday, Nov. 12th
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-12, O/U 42)
Give me one reason why I should take the Chiefs?…… Ok, I’m waiting….. Yeah, I can’t think of a reason either. Two things I know are 1) the Chiefs are a mess, and 2) everyone is going to bet the Steelers this week. And I’m going with the public.
The Chiefs offense vs. the Steelers defense is a shutout waiting to happen. The only thing working in the Chiefs favor is that the Steelers play the Ravens next week, and maybe they will be looking ahead to that divisional matchup. But even in that case I don’t see how they hang with the Steelers.
Oh, and Chiefs HC Romeo Crennel fired his defensive coordinator this week. The old defensive coordinator was… Romeo Crennel. Yup, Rac fired himself. That’s so Chiefs. And that’s not going to help.
This is a 31-10 type game. I’ll end the week taking the big favorite at home on Monday Night.
Pick: Steelers -12