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New Poll Has Weiner Plummeting, But No Clear-Cut Mayoral Favorite

Run-Off May Be Inevitable As Quinn Leads But With Below Needed 40 Percent
City Council Speaker Christine Quinn speaks out against Vito Lopez, May 16, 2013. (credit: Rich Lamb/WCBS 880)

City Council Speaker Christine Quinn speaks out against Vito Lopez, May 16, 2013. (credit: Rich Lamb/WCBS 880)

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NEW YORK (CBSNewYork) — New polls were released Friday in the hotly contested races for New York City mayor and comptroller. With the primary just over a month away, voters are starting to really focus on the candidates and narrow down their choices.

City Council Speaker Christine Quinn is currently leading the pack in the mayor’s race, bolstered by support from higher income wage earners and people from Manhattan, her home borough.

However, polls also show potential trouble spots for her — and a way for her opponents to move up.

Anthony Weiner has dropped like a stone in the latest mayoral poll — the result of revelations he exchanged lewd and explicit messages with women online, but the hotly contested race to succeed Michael Bloomberg still has no clear-cut victor.

Quinn leads the New York Times/Siena College poll with 25 percent, followed by Bill Thompson with 16, Bill de Blasio 14 and Weiner with 10.

But black voters and older voters could dramatically affect the ultimate tallies. Among black voters it’s Thompson with 24 percent, Quinn with 18, Weiner with 15 and de Blasio with 12.

Older voters are also important because they are more likely to show up to the polls and vote on primary day. Here the race is tight, with Thompson getting 18 percent of those 65 and older, Quinn 16, Weiner 13 and de Blasio 12.

So the race seems to be tightening up, but in a low-turnout race pundits expect no more than 800,000 people to vote in a city of more than 8 million. The winner will be the one who gets his supporters to the polls.

One of the takeaways from all this is that right now it looks like there will be no way to avoid a runoff in the mayor’s race. You need 40 percent to do that.

If there is a run-off, it will be held on Oct. 1.

In the Democratic race for comptroller, former governor Eliot Spitzer has a significant lead in the polls. He’s nine points ahead of Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer.

Spitzer has 44 percent to Stringer’s 35 percent.

Here again, black voters play a critical role. Spitzer is getting 57 percent of that vote, while Stringer is getting just 37 percent.

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