Silverman: With 'Deflate-Gate' On Hold, Pats Will Win Fourth Super Bowl
By Steve Silverman
» More Columns
The New England Patriots have been successful in changing the narrative this week, and after the tsunami of accusations that surfaced last week about "Deflate-gate," they have been able to concentrate on the business of preparing to play one rather large football game.
For those interested in seeing best versus best go at each other for 60 minutes, that's a good thing. If the NFL had come to the conclusion that the Patriots, head coach Bill Belichick and Tom Brady had intentionally taken steps to gain an advantage over the Indianapolis Colts by deflating the footballs they used in the AFC championship game, they could have suspended the coach and quarterback and hit the team with the loss of two or more first-round draft picks.
While none of those things have occurred, don't think for a moment that Deflate-gate is over. Somewhere back in the recesses of the NFL's Park Avenue offices, evidence is mounting. The Patriots, Belichick and Brady may yet be punished, but there's no way the NFL wanted this scandal to impact "the product."
The product, of course, is the Super Bowl itself. No other sporting event can come close to matching its impact, and it is probably the biggest American entertainment event of the year. Hollywood types might want to make a case for the Oscars, but it pales in comparison, ratings-wise.
The scandal has been put on hold, and that means the Patriots should have the opportunity to play their best game against a very formidable defending champion.
Belichick, as usual, will have his team prepared, and there's little doubt that Pete Carroll will have his team stick out its collective chin and say, "Hit us with your best shot."
The Pats want to attack the Seahawks with the element of surprise and shock throughout the game. They want to present multiple offensive formations, and come up with plays that Seattle hasn't seen before and confuse their opponent.
The Seahawks are not about to suffer from a case of paralysis by analysis. They are going to stay in their basic 4-3 formation throughout most of the game. They are not going to jump around and try to match the Patriots' formations. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn believes that when his front four pressures Brady, it is going to put enough heat on him to force errors.
The Seattle defense is overwhelmingly confident. This defense has been the best in the league for two years in a row, and players like Michael Bennett, Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor simply believe they are the best players on the field on an every-week basis.
They have proven that assertion most weeks.
But as good as the Seattle defense is, it is not infallible and it is not as good as the Steel Curtain of the 1970s, the 46 defense of the Chicago Bears in 1985 or the 2000 Baltimore Ravens that put a vicious beating on the New York Giants in Super Bowl XXXV.
All of those squads were nasty, brutal, physical teams that stopped the run first. The Seahawks are good against the run, but they are not dominant in that area. The Packers' Eddie Lacy and James Starks rushed for 117 yards in the NFC championship game, and many of those yards came between the tackles.
As good as the Seahawks are, their front seven is not huge, and the Dallas Cowboys proved in Week 6 (162 rushing yards) that their big, aggressive run blockers could push the Seattle front backwards and off the line of scrimmage.
The Patriots are also big up front, and they are going to try to emulate what the Cowboys did with nasty LeGarrette Blount.
New England does not have to gain 150 yards or more rushing in order to move the ball consistently. But if the Pats can make the Seahawks respect their running game, that should give Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Brandon LaFell a better chance to make plays.
The Seahawks are concerned about the Patriots' running game, because they know that the Patriots are big and strong up front. The Seahawks are going to have to be better than they were against the Packers, because Belichick is not going to take his foot off the gas pedal the way that Mike McCarthy did two weeks ago.
The Seahawks are going to attempt to bludgeon the Patriots with their physical running game. Carroll is not going to veer away from Marshawn Lynch even if the Seahawks get behind. Lynch is a relentless runner who hammers away at the defense every time he gets his hands on the ball.
He is often much more effective in the fourth quarter than he is in the first, because there is no letup. He may get stopped early on, but his pounding style weakens defenses.
Seattle also brings the Russell Wilson factor, and while the quarterback was at his worst for the majority of the NFC championship game, he shook off his miserable four-interception performance and came through when the game was on the line.
Wilson does not have the same kind of passing talent as Brady, but his ability to perform when the game is on the line is formidable.
The Seahawks would like nothing more than to be within seven points at the start of the fourth quarter. That's when the pounding of Lynch and the resourcefulness of Wilson become the key factors in the game.
Everything about the matchup points to a close game, and the Patriots' consistency on special teams could make the difference. Seattle wouldn't be here if not for a fake field goal that resulted in a touchdown and a successful onside kick, but New England has been better in this area on an every-week basis.
The Pats will survive this epic battle by a 27-24 margin. They will rollick in confetti and Belichick and Brady will rejoice with their fourth Lombardi Trophy.
Then Deflate-gate will bubble back to the surface, the investigation will continue and real answers will have to be provided.
The Patriots better enjoy it while they can.
