Friedman: Which Islanders Will We Get In The Playoffs, Jekyll Or Hyde?

By Daniel Friedman
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The New York Islanders are back in the postseason for the second time in three years.

How will they fare? Is their poor performance late in the season a concern? How much of an impact will the absence of Travis Hamonic have? I'll tackle these questions and more, as I attempt to predict the outcome of this first round matchup.

New York Islanders vs. Washington Capitals

Let's start with the first question: How will they fare? Well, that really depends on which Islander team shows up.

If we get the team that blew multiple leads and played poor defense against Columbus (twice) and Philadelphia, this is going to be a very short series. If we see the group that pulled together and soundly defeated the Penguins 3-1 in Game 81, which looked a lot like the team that played so well prior to the All-Star break, they've got a shot at this.

One thing I'm not worried about in any event is their offense. Braden Holtby's had a fantastic season, but the Islanders are deep enough to beat any goaltender and knife through any defense. John Tavares proved he can dominate a playoff game when the Isles played Pittsburgh two years ago, and he's got a much better supporting cast this time around.

That said, Washington can find the back of the net as well, and they've got a pair of superstars in Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom who can be just as impossible to contain as Tavares is.

Defensively, I think you've got some real cause for concern. Personnel-wise, I would give the edge to the Islanders (with or without Hamonic), but their issues stem more from how they play than from who's in the lineup (though that too has had some impact). On the flip side, they're facing a Caps team that is systematically a better defensive group -- largely due to the contributions of head coach Barry Trotz.

You're seeing an Islander team that doesn't play consistent hockey for 60 minutes these days, and that's a major, major concern. It's the biggest obstacle they face going into the playoffs. It's something that a team with the kind of talent and depth Washington has will exploit whenever they're given the opportunity.

Hamonic would be a tough loss, but by no means would it prevent the Isles from advancing, should they play at the level they're capable.

I also think the criticism of Jaroslav Halak has been incredibly overblown. He had a fine season, stole several games and points for the Islanders, I would argue, and though he had his less-than-impressive moments, he had plenty of good ones.

And what has been the rationale for declaring Halak the Isles' Achilles' heel? The fact that he gave up a bad goal late to the Flyers with a playoff berth on the line.

So, just to summarize: One bad goal = major question mark. You go ahead and call that analysis if you want to. I'll go ahead and call it what it is -- a ridiculous, unfounded hypothesis. I mean, I heard everyone and their mother-in-law talk about how that goal would crush Halak's confidence. Meanwhile, he went out and stopped 37 of 38 shots in the win over Pittsburgh the very next game.

Like I said, if you're going to worry about something, it should be the defense and not Halak. He's still a good goaltender, and he's got a history of performing very well in the playoffs. Regardless of what happens in this series, I'm not worried about him, though I expect him to be a strength for this team, not a weakness. Holtby's better, but Halak's capable of making this a competitive matchup between the two netminders.

Another glaring concern for the Isles is behind the bench. I expect Trotz to out-coach Jack Capuano in multiple ways, from lineup decisions to in-game situation management. Win or lose, I think the contrast between Trotz and Capuano in this series will clearly demonstrate what exactly the Islanders lack in their current head coach that's preventing them from really taking the next step.

How will the Islanders fare? It's really up to them. Does the fact that they've been subpar the last little while mean they're done for? Not necessarily. But I just cannot get behind them right now, given the evidence in front of me. I cannot look at a team that's blowing leads and isn't playing three full periods and say with any amount of confidence that they'll win a round.

Can they? Yes. Will they? As things currently stand, I have to go with the Caps. Whether or not I'm wrong is completely up to the Islanders. They're certainly capable of flipping the switch and winning this series.

PREDICTION: Capitals in six.

Now that we've tackled the Islanders, here's how I think the rest of the first round will play out:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

New York Rangers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

It's strange to think of the Penguins as an underdog, given their star power. Nevertheless, that's exactly what they are going into this series. They did not have a convincing finish to their regular season, and looking at their roster, there's just not enough beyond the first two lines to make me feel like they have much of a shot here.

Not helping matters is the fact that they're playing without Kris Letang, which really hurts their transition game. It has also been about a half-decade since the last time Marc-Andre Fleury was effective in the playoffs.

Conversely, the Rangers are a very deep hockey club. They are superior defensively and in goal – whether Henrik Lundqvist is 100 percent or not – and I really like their scoring balance on the wings, even if they're not as strong down the middle as Pittsburgh.

PREDICTION: Unless Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin put on Gretzky-like performances, their Penguins won't last very long. I'm going with the Blueshirts in five.

Montreal Canadiens vs. Ottawa Senators

Yes, the Senators have been a great story and, yes, they do appear to be a motivated bunch, but Tuesday morning we received word that assistant coach Mark Reeds had passed away from cancer.

That is just devastating. I'm sure the Sens have plenty of motivation and, now, through another means which nobody should ever have to derive motivation from.

For me, it comes down to this: It's going to be much tougher for Ottawa to beat Carey Price four times than it will be for the Habs to beat Andrew "The Hamburglar" Hammond four times. Montreal has its scoring woes, and may or may not be going into the opener with the services of top scorer Max Pacioretty.  But, the Canadiens have balance and they have Price. And, while that might not be enough to take them all the way, it should be enough to get past Ottawa in the first round.

PREDICTION: It'll be a tight series, it'll be hard-fought, but it'll end with the Habs emerging victorious in seven.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Detroit Red Wings

I think this is going to be a closer series than people anticipate. These might not be your older brother's Red Wings (or, in my case, the Wings I grew up watching), but they're still a talented group – not to mention, the best-coached team in the NHL. I wouldn't be so quick to count out an offense with Henrik Zetterberg (66 points), Pavel Datsyuk (65), Gustav Nyquist (54), Tomas Tatar (52) and Justin Abdelkader (23 goals). Don't forget, defenseman Niklas Kronwall (44 points) is pretty good at both ends, too.

The major concern for Detroit is in net. As a general rule, I don't like a team's chances of going very far in the playoffs if they're coming in with a goaltending controversy. And, right now, that's precisely what we're seeing with the Red Wings. I don't know if their No. 1 guy is Petr Mrazek or Jimmy Howard (Mrazek is starting Game 1, but that's all we know). And I'll bet you the players in that locker room are just as confused. It's unsettling; it's not a catalyst for confidence.

Tampa Bay might be a young team, but man is it stacked. Find me a deeper top-six in the NHL than Steven Stamkos, Alex Killorn, Ryan Callahan, Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat. Oh, and Valterri Filppula, their third line center, had 48 points this season. His linemate, Jonathan Drouin, is quite talented as well. This is the best offense in the league, folks.

Defensively, I think there's still something to be desired, but let's not pretend the Bolts are hopeless in that department. They've still got Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman, and have a couple of quality depth rearguards in Matt Carle and Braydon Coburn.

I'm very curious to see goaltender Ben Bishop in the playoffs, because we didn't really get to last season because he was injured (Tampa got swept by Montreal). If he's dominant, watch out for the Lightning.

PREDICTION: Detroit's experience keeps the Wings alive in this series, but ultimately, Tampa's depth is just too much for them to handle. I'm taking the Lightning in seven.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Anaheim Ducks vs. Winnipeg Jets

A lot of people are tabbing Winnipeg to win this series, and I can't honestly say I fully understand why. The Ducks are going into the playoffs with somewhat of a goaltending controversy, which, as you already know, is one of my biggest deterring factors of a successful playoff run. I'm also not in love with their defense.

Still, this is a very good hockey team. This is a team that I feel isn't quite getting the respect it deserves, given the season it had. Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry are one of the best dynamic duos in the league, and though the rest of the offense doesn't really feature big names (Ryan Kesler aside), they've all stepped up and scored by committee.

Winnipeg is quite underrated on offense, though its defense is a bit of a concern. I can't get behind goalie Ondrej Pavelec yet, even though he was strong in the second half of the season. I just need to see more from him. It's not that I don't think he's capable, I just haven't seen him prove it for a long enough period of time.

PREDICTION: The Jets are fun to watch, they're a compelling story and I'm delighted that playoff hockey is back in Winnipeg. They're young and will be in many more playoffs in the years to come. But this season, I just cannot see them usurping the Ducks. I think they'll have their moments and make it a fun ride, but I don't see them posing too much of a challenge for Anaheim. I'm taking the Ducks in six.

St. Louis Blues vs. Minnesota Wild

The legend of Devan Dubnyk lives on, even though I was sure he'd turn back into a pumpkin by now. It just goes to show you how difficult it is to scout and project goaltenders. His team, the Wild, isn't too bad, either. Led on offense by Zach Parise, Thomas Vanek, Mikko Koivu and Jason Pominville, and on defense by Ryan Suter and Jonas Brodin, there are plenty of capable skaters on the roster. Nino Niederreiter is more of a one-dimensional scorer, but he's pretty darn solid in that one dimension.

However, Dubnyk and Co. will face a Blues' team that's just as balanced and deep – if not more, I would argue. I get the sense that St. Louis is a team of destiny this season and have the horses to get to the Promised Land. As we've seen in the past, you don't necessarily have to have an elite goalie to win the Cup. You just need a guy who can make the right saves at the right times (see: Osgood, Chris; Crawford, Cory). Either Brian Elliott or Jake Allen is more than capable of being that guy.

PREDICTION: These two teams will be neck and neck, and the Wild will push St. Louis to the brink because they're just good enough and have enough momentum to do so. It'll be close, but the Blues will prevail in seven.

Nashville Predators vs. Chicago Blackhawks

I really like what head coach Peter Laviolette has done with the Predators. Defensemen are much more involved in the rush, there's a lot more creativity in the offensive zone from the forwards and, defensively, they're still as airtight as ever. Having Pekka Rinne between the pipes is a pretty good insurance policy, too.

Meanwhile, their opponents, the Blackhawks, are the far more accomplished of the two teams, but they're the lower seed. The 'Hawks had a pedestrian regular season – at least by their standards. They do get Patrick Kane back for the playoffs, which is a tremendous boost.

PREDICTION: I'm not sure how far the Blackhawks will go this spring, but I do think they're the superior team here. Beating Rinne four times will be no easy chore, but Chicago's got the talent to do it. For all they underachieved in the regular season, I can't ignore the Blackhawks' winning pedigree and depth. I'll take Chicago in seven.

Vancouver Canucks vs. Calgary Flames

We might as well just call this the "two teams we didn't have making the playoffs before the season started" series. That's more applicable to Calgary than Vancouver, but I'm not sure anyone really anticipated the Canucks would have the type of season they did either – especially after Ryan Miller got hurt.

I actually think the Canucks are a sleeper team in the West. Let's not forget they still have Daniel and Henrik Sedin, both of whom are capable of dominating the opposition. Radim Vrbata and Nick Bonino have had fine seasons as well. Bo Horvat is another emerging star. And, if you don't think Miller's capable of stealing multiple playoff series, you haven't watched him closely enough over his career.

The Flames are an entertaining offensive team, and I like Jonas Hiller as a playoff goaltender. With Mark Giordano, I might've even picked them to win this series. But, as fun as they are to watch, as good as Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan are – not to mention Jiri Hudler and his 76 points (where the heck did that come from?), there are plenty of holes on that roster – particularly on defense.

PREDICTION: Calgary will make it interesting, but the Sedins will prove to be too much for the Flames' porous blueline to handle. Miller will shut the door, and Vancouver will win in six.

Follow Daniel Friedman on Twitter at @DFriedmanOnNYI