Schmeelk: How To Plan Free-Agency Decisions Around Carmelo Anthony
By John Schmeelk
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As the Knicks begin yet another rebuilding process, there is one piece they have in house that is (very likely) going to be with the team for four more seasons: Carmelo Anthony.
The good news is that when healthy, Anthony is still one of the best scorers in the NBA. The bad news is that he is coming off serious patella tendon surgery, will turn 31 in the spring and already had serious deficiencies in his game when he was in his athletic prime.
At least in the short-term, the Knicks need to accept some undeniable facts going forward regarding their current superstar:
1. Anthony is a power forward. This was all but proven when he played for Mike Woodson in the Knicks' 54-win season back in 2012-13. He has a quickness advantage against most opposing power forwards, and can rebound well enough to hold his own. Anthony's defense at power forward is the most important aspect of his position assignment.
Even before his knee surgery, Anthony did not do well chasing around smaller, younger, quicker, faster players. He didn't rotate around the perimeter to three-point shooters or get back on defense well enough to deal with modern-day small forwards. With his superior strength he is far better off guarding power forwards in the paint than small forwards beyond the arc.
2. Anthony is a defensive liability the the team will have to make up for. Whether Anthony winds up at power forward or small forward, he will need to be paired with someone who protects the rim well. Even at power forward, Anthony won't be anything better than a below average help defender, so he needs a shot blocker next to him. At small forward, he will need help once quicker players get around him into the paint. That's why Tyson Chandler, when he was playing well and was healthy, was a great fit with Anthony.
3. Anthony is a finisher, not a creator. Even though Anthony is an underrated passer, especially out of double teams, it would be unwise to put the totality of shot creation for him or his teammates on his shoulders. He needs someone at guard who can create up top out of the pick-and-roll and get in the lane to create shots for himself or other Knicks.
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What does this mean for the Knicks' offseason? For the draft, nothing. Whomever the Knicks pick in the first round, if he turns out to be a superior player, will be a centerpiece of the organization for 15 years. The Knicks need to pick the best player available regardless of position, skill set or potential chemistry with Anthony. He will be with the team far longer than Melo will. I don't care if Jahlil Okafor isn't a great rim protector. If the Knicks deem him the best player when they pick, he needs to be the selection.
Luckily, none of the projected top picks in the draft profile as power forwards, or players who will play in the same offensive zones as Anthony. D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay will be creators from the top of the key, while Karl Anthony-Towns and Okafor will operate from the post. There might be some overlap with Justise Winslow, but nothing alarming. Pick the best player, period.
When it comes to free agency, Anthony's skills should be an important factor in who the Knicks target. Offensive-minded power forwards like Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Monroe should not be top priorities, since their ability to play with Anthony would be suspect. There cannot be a repeat of the Amar'e Stoudemire experiment. A defensive-minded big like Robin Lopez or Kousta Kufos would be a better fits.
The second focus needs to either be on a guard who can not only create his own shot and break down defenses, but also guard. The Knicks need more two-way players on the perimeter. In the past, they often had guards that could either guard or score, but not do both. They can't fall into that kind of trap again. Jimmy Butler would be an ideal shooting guard, but he is restricted and likely to get max money. If the Bulls aren't willing to write that check, the Knicks should be. Brandon Knight, another restricted free agent, would be an interesting combo guard, but like Butler he would cost a large portion of the Knicks' cap space.
The main priority for the small forward who plays next to Anthony is defense. The Knicks' small forward next year has to be a versatile defender to make things easier on Anthony. A player who can also stretch the floor would be helpful in opening up the Knicks' offense. Yes, that sounds a lot like Draymond Green (restricted and will cost a max contract) and, to a lesser extent, Khris Middleton (who will also not be cheap).
Anthony will dictate who the Knicks can chase in free agency due to his limitations as a player. But his presence shouldn't have any impact on the Knicks' draft pick. Anthony is still a cornerstone of this franchise, and unless he waives his no-trade clause that isn't going to change. The Knicks would be wise to remember that when they start hunting for free agents.
You can follow me on Twitter @Schmeelk for everything Knicks, Giants, Yankees and the world of sports.
