Schmeelk: 2015 NBA Draft Profile -- Justise Winslow
By John Schmeelk
» More Columns
The NBA draft is less than a month away, and with the Knicks picking fourth they'll have a number of options available to them. Over the next four weeks, we'll take a look at the 10 players that could come into play for Phil Jackson if he stays put or trades down.
Justise Winslow: SF/SG, Freshman, Duke, 6-foot-6, 225 pounds, 19 years old
*15th ranked high school recruit in 2014 by ESPN
Duke Stats: 12.6 pts/6.5 rebounds/2.1 assists/41 percent 3-pt/64 percent FT
Winslow had his national coming-out party during the Final Four when he played like the best player on the eventual national champions. He did it on both ends of the floor and often looked like a more important player than Jahlil Okafor. Known for having a great work ethic and attitude, Winslow is a gym rat with a very high floor. With an NBA-ready body and maturity to match, he is one of the safer picks in this year's draft. The question is his upside.
What we know he can do: He can play defense on the ball, off the ball, on the perimeter, down low and anywhere else you might want him. Even though he is only 6-6 he averaged nearly a block a game to go along with 1.3 steals. He is an intelligent help defender that puts himself in the right position. He often played power forward for Duke and showed the strength to defend bigger players in the post. He also covered well on the perimeter against quicker wings, guarding pick-and-roll and isolation plays very well. Despite his strong frame, he moves side to side very well, and should be a plus defender the moment he steps on an NBA floor.
Offensively, he plays near the rim well. He rarely is out of control near the basket and is strong enough to absorb contact and still finish. He doesn't have out-of-this-world athleticism but uses change-of-pace, hesitation dribbles, and the Eurostep to separate himself from defenders and create space to score. He likes to finish with his left hand (he is a lefty), but can get it done with his right hand as well. He has a post-up game with good footwork and up-and-under moves.
Winslow is an excellent cutter and works hard to get open, and always put forth extra effort, which is reflective of his superior rebounding for a small forward. He runs the floor well, and sees the floor well as a passer. He is an excellent all-around basketball player with no glaring holes in his game.
What we think he might do someday: Coming into college, the big question about Winslow was his shooting touch. From the floor he eased some fears, making more than 40 percent from 3-point range. However, he struggled at the free-throw line, making just 64 percent. He did not shoot much, or well, off the dribble. When he had time to catch and set his feet is when he had the most success. How will his new-found range hold up with the deeper NBA 3-point shot? Can he improve shooting off the dribble? He is a hard worker, so it's promising, but we don't know for sure.
What we're worried about: Many of his scoring opportunities going toward the basket came against slower power forwards that didn't have the foot speed to stay in front of him. I'm not sure he has the quickness and athleticism to beat NBA small forwards off the dribble. If he is guarded by shooting guards, however, he should be able to post them up. His inability to shoot off the dribble would also limit his ability to be effective in pick-and-roll situations as a ball handler. His ceiling as a scorer is not as high as the presumptive top four picks (Karl-Anthony Towns, Okafor, Emmanuel Mudiay, D'Angelo Russell) in the draft. He could very well be a single-digit point scorer his first year in the league.
Off the court: He is as highly regarded in terms of character as anyone in this draft class. He's a great kid and an extremely hard worker on game day and at practice that loves the game and really wants to get better. He's a coach's dream.
Buzz: Barring any shockers he should be available to the Knicks at No. 4. He should be one of the first players off the board after the top 3.
Floor: Lance Stephenson with a much better head on his shoulders.
Ceiling: A shorter version of Kahwi Leonard
Fit on the Knicks: In truth, Winslow is the perfect triangle player. His offensive game is versatile enough to do a bunch of different things. He can spot up, post up, penetrate and cut off the ball. He is a good decision maker and passer. He is the type of two-way player with a defense-first attitude that the team has been missing for a decade. His attitude and work ethic is a positive thing to build around. He would push Carmelo Anthony to the four, where he belongs and can be a much better defensive player. He could be a more perimeter-based version of what Lamar Odom did for the Lakers.
Prediction: In my opinion, Winslow is the most likely pick for the Knicks right now. He checks all the boxes for the type of player Jackson wants, and he will more than likely be on the board when the Knicks pick. Other players might have more pure athletic upside, but there might not be anyone in this class that you have a better feeling about knowing what you're going to get: a two-way player that will bring it every night. The Knicks need that desperately.
On Thursday, I'll give you a NBA Final preview, and then we'll move on to the two European prospects, Kristaps Porzingis and Mario Hezonja.
Follow John on Twitter at @Schmeelk
