Silverman: American Pharoah Will Break The Triple Crown Drought

By Steve Silverman
» More Columns

The romantic part inside all sports fans would love nothing more than to see American Pharoah laugh at the doubters and pundits who think that winning the Triple Crown is an impossibility in today's environment.

We would like to see American Pharoah do what he does best. That means breaking from the gate sharply, finding a spot in the top three and staying there until the far turn before jockey Victor Espinoza calls on him to find another gear, pulling away from the pack to win the Belmont Stakes and earn the Triple Crown.

We don't have to tell you that no horse has done it since Affirmed in 1978. We don't have to tell you that 12 horses have gone to the post since then – including Spectacular Bid in 1979 and California Chrome last year – after winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness but then failed in the Belmont.

We don't have to tell you those things because that's part of horse racing lore, and those who are interested in modern-day racing know this as if it were piped into their brain by the thought police.

All athletes have changed from generation to generation, and that includes the equine variety. Trainers used to run their charges with much greater frequency than they do now. There was a time when top-level horses would run every two or three weeks during the racing season, and that meant that the three-race Triple Crown grind over a five-week period was not so out of the ordinary.

But that's not how it's done now. Most top trainers like to give their best horses a prep time of four or five weeks between races, and that's why horses like Frosted, Materiality, Keen Ice, Madefromlucky and Mubtaahij have not raced since the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs.

These horses will all be much fresher than American Pharoah, and it stands to reason that if one or two of them can put together their best race in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes, American Pharoah may be up against it. If that's the case, he would be the 13th horse to fail in the Belmont -- I'll Have Another took the Derby and Preakness in 2012 but was scratched on the eve of the final leg -- after winning the two previous jewels of the Triple Crown.

No horse who has competed in the Derby and the Preakness has come back to win the Belmont Stakes since Afleet Alex in 2005. That's a strong trend that trainer Bob Baffert is trying to beat this year with American Pharoah.

He is the odds-on favorite because of his strength and consistency, but how much of that has been sapped during the first two legs of the Triple Crown campaign?

Is American Pharoah strong enough to beat very good horses like Frosted and Materiality, who are rested and ready to roll?

That's what this Belmont Stakes is really all about. If there has ever been a horse that should win the Triple Crown, it is American Pharoah, who was very much the best in the first two Triple Crown races. He was well-positioned throughout the Derby because he went with the leaders right from the start. He was even better in the Preakness when the ferocity and power of a thunderstorm that hit Pimlico Race Course minutes before the race did not bother him a bit.

Instead, American Pharoah broke alertly from the rail, went right to the lead and stretched it out through the race as he won by seven lengths.

That race indicates that he is improving and that his form has not yet peaked.

However, even peaking horses can get tired, especially when they are competing against rested ones.

Like all the other romantics out there – at least where the sport of kings is concerned – I would like nothing more than to see a Triple Crown winner.

I remember watching Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed win the Triple Crown three times in four years and thinking it was a regular occurrence.

I remember a trip to Belmont Park in June 1979 with Gump (named for the ex-Rangers goalie Gump Worsley) and his crew of pals/wise guys who all wanted to see Spectacular Bid make it four out of five. I remember plunking down $100 on his nose and tearing that ticket up woefully a few minutes after he had been done in and finished up the track.

There was a story about a safety pin and a hoof that emerged the next day, but that did not allow me to get my money back.

Hopefully, this time there's no safety pin underneath American Pharoah's hoof. He has a bit of a problem going up against rested rivals, but he is strong and well-prepared.

This time, history welcomes a new Triple Crown winner to the club, and American Pharoah will find the glory that eluded the previous 12.