Schmeelk: Game 1 Affirms That Warriors Will Win Finals Fairly Easily
By John Schmeelk
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Game 1 proved why the Warriors are going to win this series fairly easily.
How does an overtime win prove something so dramatically?
Look at it this way: LeBron James scored an NBA Finals career-high 44 points and was two rebounds and four assists short of a triple-double. Kyrie Irving looked relatively healthy most of the game and scored 23 points with seven rebounds and six assists. Irving is now potentially lost for the series with a knee injury. The Warriors came out obviously nervous and spotted Cleveland a 14-point first-quarter lead. Despite a good final stat line, Stephen Curry didn't play his best game. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green shot a combined 9 of 27 and 3 of 12 from behind the arc. The Warriors still won the game in overtime.
James did all he could to win this game for Cleveland. He dominated and was borderline unstoppable in post-up situations. He showed how a dominant post-up skill can still dominate an NBA game. But aside from Irving and Timofey Mozgov, nobody helped James.
Unlike the Hawks, who sent constant undisciplined help James' way, the Warriors stayed at home and made James score on elite defenders like Andre Iguodala. He got his 44 points, but it took 38 shots to get them. The constant isolations also didn't allow his teammates to get into the game. J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert shot a combined 5 of 19 because they weren't getting constant open catch-and-shoot opportunities in rhythm off of passes from James.
Irving is the only other player on the Cavaliers who can efficiently create his own offense, and he did that in spurts on Thursday night. But with his knee hurt once again, the Cavs are down to Smith as the team's only other shot creator. But Smith isolations often turn into low percentage step-back jumpers. The Warriors will be fine with that.
The Cavaliers are going to have to alter their offensive strategy and promote more team and ball movement. They will not beat the Warriors by playing isolation ball with James, even if he puts up 40 a game. He cannot beat the Warriors by himself. The energy it takes for James to pound the ball into the post and muscle to the basket is something that can't be sustained for the nearly 46 minutes he was on the floor. It's a long war of attrition the Warriors are playing, and they won it in Game 1. James was far less aggressive getting to the hoop late in the game, which could have had something to do with fatigue.
This is by no means a criticism of James. He did exactly what he had to do given the way the Warriors guarded him. They played him straight up man to man, and James took his man and scored. He dominated the post and played wonderfully. The Warriors dictated the way the Cavaliers executed their offense.
During the playoffs, the Cavaliers have been able to rely on opponents double-teaming James on those plays, and he found his teammates for open looks. The Warriors are not allowing that, which means the Cavaliers need to change their strategy. James can't be asked to work that hard for every point. He needs to get easier looks, and so do his teammates. That's not going to come off of isolations. The Warriors are too good of a defensive team to let that happen.
Unfortunately for David Blatt, his options are limited. With an injured Irving, his other playmaker is out. Another scoring option, Kevin Love, is also hurt. He just doesn't have the number of weapons that Steve Kerr has at his disposal.
The Warriors' bench dominated the Cavs in the second quarter, which helped bring Golden State back from the earlier deficit. If you put these two teams' rosters in a pool and had a draft, there's a chance that of the first seven guys taken, five or six are Warriors. Ten or 11 of the first 17 guys would be Warriors as well. That changes if Irving is as healthy the rest of the series as he was in the first three quarters of Game 1. It doesn't look like that will be the case.
The Cavaliers might figure out a way to win a game in this series, but they won't do much better than that. If the Cavaliers were 100 percent healthy we would be having a different conversation. But they're not, and that's why Cleveland will still be starving for another championship when this series ends next week.
Schmeelk's Snippets
- Green played a borderline terrible Game 1, and it looked like the bright lights of the Finals bothered him. I would expect him to play better moving forward. If the Cavaliers continue going to James in the post, I would expect to see Green on him more in Game 2.
- I'm curious to see if Curry finishes better around the hoop in the rest of the finals. He plays below the rim, and the extra intense defense of the Finals seemed to bother his shots in the paint on Thursday night. Another problem for Cleveland is it didn't make Curry work at all on defense. That needs to change.
= Harrison Barnes may never be the star people thought he would be when he showed up at UNC, but he has turned himself into an excellent player who is good at what he does. He can hit threes, finish at the rim and play solid defense.
- Shumpert did a good job on Curry, but once they started running him through screens he struggled a bit. Shumpert never played great defense off of ball and off-ball screens as a Knick, and it showed on Thursday night.
- Smith has had success in the playoffs this year because he hasn't been asked to do too much. For the most part, he has been a catch-and-shoot guy. The Warriors have tried to eliminate that. Let's see how Smith responds. In the past, he has turned to forcing undisciplined low-percentage shots.
You can follow me on Twitter @Schmeelk for everything Knicks, the NBA, the Giants and the world of sports.
