Schmeelk: Knicks Might Buy Way Into 2nd Round, Draft A Project Player
By John Schmeelk
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In what should be the last time for a while, the Knicks get ready for a draft without any of their own picks at their disposal. Even though they do not currently own any picks, much like last season, the Knicks are expected to purchase at least one in this year's draft.
But there are no guarantees. As general manager Steve Mills pointed out earlier in the month, the Knicks will only buy a pick if a player the organization wants is available when they have the opportunity to make the purchase. Whom will the Knicks purchase a pick from? Nobody knows, but it is likely to be in the second round.
Every season there are second-round picks that become good NBA players, even if it takes a couple years. The Knicks can choose an American player and try to work him into things right away or stash a European player away for future years like they did with Willy Hernangomez last season. (He is expected to join the Knicks this year.)
Predicting who the Knicks are going to try to pick is a waste of time. They've brought in a bunch of guys for workouts, but there's no way to know who will be available when they have an opportunity to purchase a pick. It would be flat-out guessing. There's also a chance they draft someone who they didn't host or were reported to hold a workout for.
How the Knicks approach this, however, is important. A second-round pick shouldn't be bought with the goal of filling a hole or need. The Knicks can't say something like, "We are going to use that second-round pick to find our shooting guard." At that point in the draft, there are limited players that a front office believes can have a legitimate impact in the NBA. The Knicks should simply focus on drafting the guy with the best chance of making it, regardless of position.
Whomever the Knicks draft in the second round probably won't help them much this year, and might take a couple more years to develop into a player. Without knowing what is going to happen in either the 2016 or 2017 free agent periods, determining future needs is nearly impossible. Kristaps Porzingis is definitely going to be here. Is anyone else even close to a guarantee? Nope.
It's a cliché, but it is a cliché for a reason: Pick the best available player. It's that simple. Maybe you end up finding the next Draymond Green, Manu Ginobli, Paul Millsap, Monta Ellis, Michael Redd, Marc Gasol, Gilbert Arenas, Mark Price, Mo Cheeks, Dennis Rodman or Alex English. The odds are small, but they get better if you don't concern yourself with positional need or system fit. If the guy is good enough, he'll figure out a way to get on the floor and contribute no matter who else is on the team and no matter what system is being run.
Draft analysts seem to indicate this draft is fairly deep and will have some talented players still on the board in the early to middle part of the second round.
Despite the relatively bad odds of finding a meaningfully impactful player, what the Knicks do on Thursday night is important. Even with Carmelo Anthony having an expiration date, the Knicks' biggest concern is building around Porzingis with good, young players who can grow with him over the next three to five years. By then, Porzingis still won't be 25 and will be entering his prime. He is going to need good players to help him, and whoever the Knicks grab in the second round has the potential to be one of those players.
So here's my advice to Knicks fans: Watch on Thursday night, but don't put a lot of pressure on yourself. Just wait for the Knicks to make their move, and when they do, run to your computer and research the player they decided to pick. Have fun with it. Save your nerves for free agency.
Schmeelk's Snippets
• I don't see a draft-night trade happening involving players for the Knicks unless Anthony reverses course and decides he wants to be moved. The chances of that happening are slim to none. The Knicks don't have a ton of talent to offer teams unless they want to give up on point guard Jerian Grant after just one season. Maybe team president Phil Jackson will surprise but I think it is unlikely.
• The other big news Tuesday was the decision of two Knicks -- Arron Afflalo and Derrick Williams -- to decline their player options and become free agents this offseason. Given how much money teams have to spend under the cap and how shallow the free agent pool is, both are likely to get longer-term contracts for similar or more money than what they might have gotten from the Knicks.
Afflalo leaving helps the team, since he did not play up to that $8 million price tag. Derrick Williams, on the other hand, would have been welcomed back for his $4.6 million player option. He was a spark off the bench despite his deficiencies in shot selection and on defense.
Their decisions will give the Knicks more than $30 million in cap space, even including cap holds for Lance Thomas and Langston Galloway, who the Knicks would like to bring back given they are good teammates and their defensive ability off the bench. It is enough for a max contract and then they'd still have some left over. (For example, Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley would make $112 million over four years on a max contract from the Knicks, a deal that would start at over $25 million a year.)
As big as that number looks, the Knicks are still only in the middle of the league in terms of cap space available this offseason (pending other player/team decisions on contract options). Whom the Knicks might be able to convince to come remains to be seen.
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