Silverman: Patriots Likely To Be Challenged By Steelers, Chiefs For AFC Superiority

By Steve Silverman
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Three weeks to go in the regular season means that we are at the most intense part of the schedule.

There is enough time for a team on the outside of the playoffs, such as the Miami Dolphins, to make a serious move and still get in, while the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos may have a hard time winning another game the rest of the year and could end up watching the playoffs from their Mile High outpost.

Let's look at all the serious AFC playoff contenders, handicap their chances for getting to the postseason and assess what their chances are for success if they get there.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (11-2) – The Patriots are all but assured a playoff spot and the AFC East title, and they have a full game lead to earn homefield advantage throughout the postseason. If they end up tied with the Chiefs, who are in first place in the AFC West, New England has the current tiebreaker for homefield advantage.

That is almost certainly the key to their success. When the Patriots have gone on the road in the playoffs, they have struggled. They perform much better at Gillette Stadium and are more likely to get to the Super Bowl without having to leave Foxboro.

They have no guarantees either way, since they have no Rob Gronkowski on offense and the defense appears to lack a dominant pass rusher. Defensive end Trey Flowers leads the team with five sacks, and that's not good enough. Those issues are likely to be exposed in the playoffs.

Playoff chances: 1-to-10

Super Bowl odds: 2-to-1

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MIAMI DOLPHINS (8-5) – The Dolphins have clearly responded to first-year head coach Adam Gase, and while they are on the outside looking in at a playoff spot right now, they have games against the Jets, Bills and Pats remaining. They had a good chance to win two of those –if not all three – before quarterback Ryan Tannehill injured his knee.

While it was initially thought that he tore the ACL and MCL in his left knee, Tannehill's ligaments are merely sprained, and he could return by Week 17. If backup Matt Moore can handle the pressure, the Dolphins have an excellent chance of passing the Broncos and getting into the playoffs.

Playoff chances: 40 percent

Super Bowl odds: 20-to-1

* * *

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8-5) – The Steelers may be the most dangerous team in football. They are rolling with four straight wins, including a victory over the previously streaking Giants. The trio of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, running back Le'Veon Bell and wide receiver Antonio Brown is unstoppable when they are going at full speed, and that is the case right now.

It will come down to the Steelers' Week 16 home game against the Ravens, a team that always gives them trouble. If Pittsburgh wins that game, it will make a postseason statement.

Playoff chances: 80 percent

Super Bowl odds: 3-to-1

* * *

BALTIMORE RAVENS (7-6) – Losing at New England on Monday night was a big blow to the Ravens' wild-card chances, but not to their division chances. If they can win at Pittsburgh next week, they would have an excellent chance to win the division based on their 2-0 sweep of the Steelers.

The Ravens' other two games are against Philadelphia and Cincinnati, certainly winnable for the team with the fourth-ranked defense in the league.

Playoff chances: 25 percent

Super Bowl odds: 15-to-1

* * *

HOUSTON TEXANS (7-6) and TENNESSEE TITANS (7-6) – Both of these teams are at the top of the AFC South, and the division is likely to come down to the season finale between them at Tennessee.

The Texans have superb defensive personnel, even though they have been without J.J. Watt for the majority of the season. Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney are capable of taking over any game, but the coach/QB combination of Bill O'Brien and Brock Osweiler is a liability.

The Titans are surging with Marcus Mariota and DeMarco Murray and are ahead of schedule.

Tennessee still has plenty of issues, with the most significant being a pass defense that ranks 31st in the league. The Titans could blow up at any time.

However, Mariota rarely makes mistakes, and that will make the difference.

Playoff chances: Texans, 30 percent; Titans, 50 percent

Super Bowl odds: Texans 20-to-1; Titans 15-to-1

* * *

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-7) – Does this team even want to win? That was the question being asked after the Colts lost in Week 14 at home to the Texans.

While they are only a game behind in the AFC South and have Andrew Luck at quarterback, this team has offensive line issues and too many problems on defense.

With games against Minnesota, Oakland and Jacksonville, the Colts are only likely to win just once more.

Playoff chances: 10 percent.

Super Bowl odds: 50-to-1

* * *

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (10-3) – The numbers don't always tell the story in the NFL, and that's the case with Andy Reid's Chiefs. They have the 23rd-ranked offense and the 27th-ranked defense, and that indicates that Kansas City should be well below .500.

Don't believe for a second that they are a bad team. The Chiefs are the likely AFC West champions as a result of their season sweep over the Raiders. They have a fine leader in quarterback Alex Smith, a big-play tight end in Travis Kelce and an emerging home run threat in Tyreek Hill.

The Chiefs are loaded with big playmakers on defense in Justin Houston, Marcus Peters and Dee Ford, and they are capable of shutting down the best offensive teams in the league – with the possible exception of the Steelers.

Playoff chances: 1-to-5

Super Bowl chances: 4-to-1

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OAKLAND RAIDERS (10-3) – The Raiders went from the No. 1 seed in the AFC to the fifth seed as a result of their loss to the Chiefs last Thursday night, but don't think that Jack Del Rio's Raiders are discouraged.

The Raiders have been one of the great stories in the NFL this season, and they have a tremendous offensive team led by Derek Carr, Latavius Murray, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree.

There are plenty of holes on defense, but the presence of Khalil Mack means they have a player who can simply take over and dominate.

Playoff chances: 1-to-3

Super Bowl chances: 8-to-1

* * *

DENVER BRONCOS (8-5) – The Broncos suffered a painful Week 14 defeat at Tennessee, and while they are holding on to the No. 2 wild-card seed right now, their closing schedule includes the Patriots, Chiefs and Raiders.

They might be lucky to win one of those games.

The offense is not playoff worthy, as the running game has all but disappeared. And while the defense is still capable, it has problems stopping the run.

Playoff chances: 15-to-1

Super Bowl chances: 30-to-1

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