Schmeelk: The Knicks Are Overachieving -- Will It Last?
By John Schmeelk
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Even after losing their final three games on their road trip and coming back to New York at 14-13, it's fair to ask if the Knicks' record fairly represents how they have played so far this year.
No one is asking the Knicks to hand back any wins. That's not the point of this exercise. The point is to see if the Knicks can maintain this win/loss pace if they continue to play the way they have so far.
In short, the answer is no. Right now, the Knicks are tied for the 13th-best record in the league, and there are very few statistics that show that's where they should be. The Knicks are 22nd in the league in terms of point differential (or plus-minus). They've been outscored on average by a little more than three points per game.
So how are they 14-13 with that type of differential? They are winning an inordinate amount of close games. They are 6-1 in contests decided by four or fewer points. Winning close games is a skill aided by good one-on-one players such as Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony and even Kristaps Porzingis, but can they continue to win at that rate? It seems unlikely. They also have been blown out by a lot of the better teams in the league, which does skew the point differential a little bit.
The Knicks have struggled against teams over .500, going just 3-9. Against teams under .500, they are 11-4. There isn't anything necessarily wrong with that. In fact, beating the teams you're supposed to beat is the sign of a good team. The problem is the Knicks' performance against those good teams -- of those nine losses, seven have been by nine or more points.
The Knicks do have the 13th-best offense according to points per possession, but defensively they are still a mess. They rank as the fifth-worst defensive team in the league (in points allowed per possession), with only the Blazers, Nets, Lakers and Timberwolves). Generally speaking, teams in the bottom sixth of the league do not often make the playoffs. The lack of defense shows up most against the better teams in the league, one of the reasons the Knicks are just 3-9 against them, including multiple blowouts.
New York's defensive rebounding stats are even worse. The Knicks only grab 73.7 percent of the available defensive rebounds, the second worst rate in the league. That's the reason they allow more second-chance points than all but two teams in the league. The Knicks also foul more than every team in the league, spare three. Opposing teams are shooting just under 27 free throws per game against the New York.
The Knicks' 3-point defense has been passable, near the middle of the league in 3-pointers allowed and opponent 3-point percentage. Their transition defense leaves more to be desired, allowing the seventh-most fastbreak points. They also allow the fifth-most points in the paint in the league.
It's hard for a team to win consistently when they foul too much, do not get back on defense enough and can't stop teams from getting into and scoring in the paint. Until one or all three of those things get better, the Knicks are not going to be anything close to resembling a real playoff threat. They might tread water a while, but winning consistently while playing some of the league's worst defense simply isn't going to happen.
Even more concerning is that the Knicks have shown they are not going to be able to win without Rose. Of the four games the former MVP point guard missed this month, New York was only able to win once (against the Kings). He has been able to stay healthy for the most part this year, but will it continue? It is more likely he will miss his typical 15 to 25 games over the course of the year. Since the Knicks chose not to add a third legitimate point guard when building their roster, any Rose absence is going to be very hard to survive.
Can the Knicks add a point guard or improve defensively? Absolutely. Maybe Joakim Noah proves to be at least be partially useful on defense and makes a difference. Maybe playing together more helps the defensive chemistry. Any of that is possible, and it better happen if the Knicks want to threaten as a serious team in the postseason. If they keep playing the way they have over the first 27 games, especially defensively, they may not be in the playoffs at all.
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