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Schmeelk: Tanking Helps, But Knicks' Luck In Draft Is More Important

By John Schmeelk
» More Columns

The Knicks probably aren't going to win more than a game or two the rest of the season. It should land them somewhere between fourth and seventh in the NBA draft lottery. A good goal for the Knicks should be to finish no worse than fifth, which would give them a decent 28 percent shot at a top-three pick. Finishing sixth drops them down to 22 percent, while going all the way to seventh reduces their shot to 15 percent.

Math is math, which is why making the odds as favorable as possible is important in the season's final weeks. It can't be a bad thing. Finishing one game worse than the Timberwolves two seasons ago cost the Knicks a chance at Karl Anthony-Towns. But the other lesson from 2015 is all about how luck can impact the draft.

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For one, the Knicks had the second-worst record in the league but still only wound up with the fourth pick in the draft, a testament to no matter how many pingpong balls you have, it still doesn't always work out. The lottery makes even the best tanking efforts have only a moderate impact on the odds when all is said and done.

Ironically, the best thing that could have happened to the Knicks in 2015 is picking fourth instead of second or third. All reports indicated that the Knicks would have taken either Jahlil Okafor or D'Angelo Russell if they had picked in either the two or three hole. So, in the ultimate irony, moving down to the fourth spot appears to have been a blessing in disguise since Kristaps Porzingis appears to be a superior prospect to those two other guys.

Kristaps Porzingis
Kristaps Porzingis is interviewed after being selected fourth overall by the Knicks in the 2015 NBA Draft. (Photo by Doug Kanter/NBAE via Getty Images)

The draft is really a crapshoot that comes down to good evaluation and a lot of luck. A team's scouting department can do the best job it can, but a prospect might never develop for reasons that are impossible to predict, like injury. It's nowhere near an exact science. It's far closer to educated guessing.

It's all about the right guy being available at the right draft spot for the right team. Looking back in five years, picking fourth might be better than picking second, thanks to a fickle thing called luck.

MORE: Schmeelk: Point Guards At Top Of Draft A Poor Fit For Knicks' Triangle

Of course, having the largest number of guys for a team's front office to choose from is the ideal situation. You have a better chance to find a generational player picking first than fifth, and that's why Knicks fans should hope their team keeps losing. But if it turns out they have the sixth-worst record instead of the fourth-worst, it's not the end of the world.

In fact, it could end up being another blessing in disguise.

SCHMEELK'S SNIPPETS

I've seen enough of the draft class to have a decent idea of how I would rank them. Until I watch more, I have Washington point guard Markelle Fultz, UCLA point guard Lonzo Ball and Kansas swingman Josh Jackson in the first tier.

In the second tier, I have Kentucky shooting guard Malik Monk, Duke small forward Jayson Tatum and Kentucky point guard De'Aaron Fox.

In my third tier, I have North Carolina State point guard Dennis Smith Jr. and Florida State forward Jonathan Isaac.

I leave Arizona big man Lauri Markkanen off the list because he is too similar to Porzingis. I have not watched enough of French point guard Frank Ntilikina or Michigan State forward Miles Bridges to have a good feel for them yet.

The Knicks will have choices of some good players. They'll have to choose the right one.

For everything Knicks, Giants, and the world of sports, follow John on Twitter at @Schmeelk

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