Palladino: GMs' Gambles Will Help Mets, Hurt Yankees
By Ernie Palladino
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The phrase that must have reverberated through Sandy Alderson's and Brian Cashman's heads this week sounds like the same one heard outside any casino in Vegas.
"You win some, you lose some."
Alderson? He won his bet. Bartolo Colon is still around and can plan to stay around despite Wednesday's 6 2/3-inning, four-run, nine-hit loss.
Cashman lost his. He bet that Masahiro Tanaka's valuable but fragile right arm would weather the season. Now he's gone for at least a month.
That's how it goes when dealing with humans, which is sort of what sports is all about once past the contracts. One never knows how a body is going to react over the long haul despite indicators like age and injury.
Take the Colon gamble, for instance. Last year, Alderson brought the now 41-year-old, rotund righty in as a "placeholder," as the Daily News' Andy Martino so aptly put it in his blog Wednesday morning. He was originally designated as one of those "hold the fort" kind of guys. Let him pitch, do the best he could, until a Noah Syndergaard or Rafael Montero matured enough to break into the rotation.
Then dump him off to some other team by the July 31 trade deadline.
Somewhere along the line, however, the plan changed. No doubt the 11-9 mark he compiled until then, en route to a team-high 15-win season had something to do with it. So did his locker room leadership.
Whatever the reason, Alderson changed his thinking and decided to gamble one more year on him. The offseason trade bait switched from the newly valued Colon to Dillon Gee.
Hanging on to a 41-year-old pitcher is about as big a gamble as a GM can take. But Colon has rewarded Alderson with a 4-1, 3.31 mark. The 7-3 loss against the Marlins was by far his worst outing of the year, but it was hardly a shellacking. In fact, when Colon left with two out in the seventh and Martin Prado on first, the Mets only trailed 4-3. And that run came in on Dee Gordon's sacrifice fly the batter before Prado's hit.
Unless Alderson sees a major move that can put the Mets over the top for a playoff spot come the end of July, Colon isn't going anywhere.
The gamble paid off.
Alderson won.
Cashman, not so much.
He bet that Tanaka would survive at least most of the season before his partially torn ulnar collateral ligament gave way and forced him into Tommy John surgery. If nothing else, he can say it wasn't the elbow, but the inflamed wrist and forearm that landed him on the 15-day disabled list.
That one lost, he now bets that the tendonitis will subside, and Tanaka can return after a month or so of rest. But considering how these things tend to go, there is an equal likelihood that Tanaka will ultimately have to undergo the season-ending surgery after all and miss at least a chunk of next season, too.
For Cashman and his team, that's like dropping a pile of chips on one card at the blackjack table. It could torpedo the whole night, just as Tanaka's injury could sink the whole season.
That's because Tanaka's situation isn't just about a single spot in the rotation. Chase Whitley can probably give a consistent five innings if it comes down to that. But the Yanks were relying on their Japanese import to save their bullpen by eating the innings others like CC Sabathia, current ace Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi or Adam Warren won't.
The relief work is getting down quite well for now, but the heavy workload is bound to affect it as the season progresses.
Cashman didn't procure an veteran insurance starter in the offseason. Eovaldi simply replaced Hiroki Kuroda, who went back to Japan. For whatever help they can expect from Chris Capuano, he won't be ready for another couple of weeks. And Ivan Nova probably won't be back until mid-June.
The heat is on Whitley not only to produce, but to endure.
Cashman, in the end, may get less than a month out of Tanaka.
He bet wrong.
Win some, lose some.
Alderson won. Cashman lost.
Now we'll see how those bets affect their respective franchises going forward.
Bet that the Mets will wind up cashing in more chips than the Yanks.
