Schmeelk: Knicks Are Playoff Team, But How Much More Is Hard To Say
By John Schmeelk
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The Knicks will begin their season Tuesday night in Cleveland with the kind of optimism they haven't had since 2013-14, the season after their 54-win foray into the second round of the playoffs.
They are barely recognizable from last season, returning just Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis, Lance Thomas, Kyle O'Quinn, and Sasha Vujacic.
How good the Knicks might be this season will rest largely on the shoulders of their two high-risk/high-reward offseason additions: Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah.
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Over the past five seasons, Rose has played in just 166 of a possible 410 games. Noah played in just 29 games in 2015-16 due to a shoulder injury that required surgery, and he had knee surgery in the summer of 2014. The knee surgery had an adverse affect on both his mobility and leaping ability. Noah's mobility and athleticism are part of what made him such a great defensive player and there are questions as to whether he can recapture that aspect of his game.
Even when both players have been on the court the past two seasons, they have been far less effective than they were in their prime years. Noah averaged only 9.6 rebounds two years ago, and that dropped to under nine per game last season. His field goal percentage dropped to 44.5 and then a dismal 38 last season. On layups, he shot just 39 percent last season and 47 percent the season before. If those numbers don't improve with time removed from those two major injuries, Noah will turn out to be a downgrade from the Knicks' very capable center last season, Robin Lopez.
As for Rose, he has never shot above 43.5 percent since his MVP season in 2011. He has never shot 35 percent from behind the arc. And when his shooting percentages went down, his assist numbers did not improve, staying below five per game since 2012. He doesn't see the court well on his way to the basket and has yet to show he can finish the way he did in the past. Expect more pick-and-pop than pick-and-roll opportunities from him this season.
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Both Rose and Noah will, however, have plenty of help. Porzingis showed in the preseason that he is ready to take a fairly significant jump in his second season. Anthony is still a very capable scorer that requires a lot of attention from opposing defenses. Brandon Jennings looks excellent as a backup point guard and should be able to keep Rose's minutes limited. Courtney Lee is a good two-way shooting guard that can play defense and hit the open shot. Lance Thomas is a good two-way player off the bench.
The team also has a bench with enough intriguing young players like Willy Hernangomez, Justin Holiday, Maurice Ndour, Mindaugus Kuzminskas and Ron Baker to provide not only some depth, but also some upside.
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The Knicks should be able to score with Rose, Anthony and Porzingis, but there's more anxiety about whether there is enough basketball to go around than if they will pile up points. Both Rose and Anthony are high-usage players that need the ball in their hands. So is Jennings. Porzingis still needs to get his looks and if the preseason is any indication, new coach Jeff Hornacek will make sure that happens.
The Knicks are going to be far more aesthetically pleasing to watch this season. There are remnants of the triangle in the half-court set, but there will be far more pick-and-roll plays than anything the team did over the past couple of seasons. The team will also play much faster. The Knicks were in the top third of the league in terms of pace in the preseason. As long as Rose and Anthony embrace it, the team should get a lot of easy baskets in transition.
The biggest question, besides the play of Rose and Noah, will be whether or not the Knicks will play defense consistently. It is hard to imagine that the point guard defense won't be slightly better with the departure of Jose Calderon, but neither Rose nor Jennings are good defenders. Anthony's deficiencies on that end, especially in transition, are well documented.
Porzingis could be an elite rim protector this season, and Lee is a good wing defender. How good Noah will be on that end will go a long way towards the determining the Knicks' success. If he struggles or misses significant time with an injury, both O'Quinn and Hernangomez are poor defenders. Porzingis would likely have to play a lot of center, with Thomas playing forward alongside Anthony. Going small is something the Knicks could do a lot more under Hornacek.
If everything goes right, including Noah and Rose finding the fountain of youth, the Knicks could win 50 games and perhaps get to the Eastern Conference finals. More likely, they finish in the neighborhood of 45 wins and play on the road in the first round of the playoffs. If a lot goes wrong, they could find themselves out of the playoffs. Considering they traded long-term assets under reasonable contracts, anything short of a playoff round win would be considered a disappointment.
There are too many high-risk variables at play here to be overly confident in this team to be a top-four squad in the east. The Knicks will be better and more exciting, but at the end of the season they will be little more than a middling team.
Prediction: 44 wins, No. 7 seed, and a first-round playoff loss.
For everything Knicks, Giants and the world of sports, please follow John at @Schmeelk
