Of all the signs leading to a defeat for President Barack Obama in the presidential election of 2012, the most glaring sign is the unemployment rate which remains extremely high. Not only has the unemployment rate been consistently high throughout 2012, it has been extremely high throughout President Obama’s tenure as president.
Of course the president blames former-President George W. Bush for the data that’s plagued him for nearly four years now. But, obviously, by now Americans expected to see at least a glimpse of the “change” that Obama talked about. And – quite bluntly put – the “change” that Obama hoodwinked the majority of Americans into believing in. Of course, Obama did have a safety feature on most of his promises for “change”. He was careful to not overtly detail what the “changes” would be and how fast they would be accomplished. Of course, it was assumed that the “changes” would happen within four years, and time is about up.
Come to think of it, the first time the president admitted that his “changes” would take a great deal of time was probably when he said it during his inaugural address. Prior to that, there were few solid mentions of how long these miraculous “changes” would take, but only the assumption that “change” would happen.
“Changes” – especially positive ones – weren’t well-defined by Obama. Yet, the bulk of Americans were naïve enough to fall for the pitch. And now that the ball has been thrown, the game which is a no-hitter is just about over.
Beyond the obvious answer to the Reagan question – are you better off than you were four years ago? – there is historic data that strongly suggests that Obama will not be in the White House for a second term. That historic data is regarding the national unemployment rate that just hasn’t improved – no matter what Obama has tried to do or who Obama has blamed. As I’ve written before, Obama’s chronic blaming of others has gotten this country absolutely nowhere.
Once again, the latest national unemployment rate – which was released last Friday – is 8.2%. Furthermore, there are only four more months until Americans go the ballot box, and economic statisticians bluntly say that there is no way in hell anything’s going to change before the end of the year.
Problematic for President Obama is that no president has ever been reelected with an unemployment rate higher than 8.0% at the time of his second election. More than simply an omen, this is logical. People need jobs and must have a safe economy. America has had neither under the leadership of President Barack Obama. Most recently, economists say that even when the money situation starts to turn around for Americans, the money will be worth much less than it was before – simply explained by what has continued to happen to the American economy in the past four years.
Again, like Obama, there are those who want to blame Obama’s predecessor – and even the Congress with whom he must work. Well, guess what. Obama is still going to have the same predecessor to blame if he gets to a second term – and he’s still going to have to work with a Congress which he constantly blames for his lack of positive results. There are great reasons why presidents with a less than 8% unemployment rate don’t get reelected. It’s because people need to see some positive and hopeful progress, it’s because people are tired of the constant “blame game” which gets the nation nowhere, and – for the most important reason – it’s because most people won’t be fooled again.
About Scott Paulson
Scott Paulson writes political commentary for Examiner.com and teaches English at a community college in the Chicago area. The views and opinions expressed in this post are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of CBS Local.