Schmeelk: Breaking Down The Knicks' Options With The Fourth Pick
By John Schmeelk
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The emotion has finally started to drain away, and despite the disappointment of not having a top-two selection, the Knicks are not in a bad position picking fourth in this year's draft. Even though their chances of Karl Anthony-Towns or Jahlil Okafor falling to them are slim to none, choosing between D'Angelo Russell, Emmanuel Mudiay, Justise Winslow and others will give them a player who will be a BIG part of the core moving forward.
As long as the team doesn't foolishly trade the pick away in some ill-conceived scheme, all should be relatively well. I won't descend back into that potential darkness again, since I covered that part of the Knicks' lottery loss on Wednesday.
In the coming month, I'll write up player profiles on probably about a dozen players the Knicks could consider at four, or target if the front office does indeed try to trade down to the end of the lottery or the middle of the first round. There's still a lot of work to do, but here are my early thoughts on the Knicks' options.
If Russell -- or by some miracle Jahlil Okafor -- fall to the Knicks at three, either one of those players should be the pick. Okafor can be a dominant big man for a decade and establish an inside-out culture the team desperately needs. He is the best post player to come out of college since Tim Duncan. A lot of people say the NBA doesn't revolve around big men anymore, and that's true, but it isn't because the game has changed. It's because no dominant back-to-the-basket big men have been developed in high school or college for a decade.
Russell, meanwhile, has the combo guard and shooting skills that make him a great fit in any NBA system. While everyone made a big deal about his scoring and shooting prowess at Ohio State, what set him apart to me was his passing. He always makes the right pass off of screen-and-rolls, and he has the ability to anticipate where the open play is going to be before he even gets there. His passing in transition is uncanny.
Simply going on pure basketball skill, Russell is my top player in the draft. His only knock is a lack of elite explosive athleticism, but his smarts and length (6-foot-9 wingspan) should be able to make up for that.
After those two and Towns are gone, that's where it gets interesting. Mudiay appears to be the last remaining player in the consensus top-tier of this draft class, but there is still a lot of mystery surrounding him. He decided to skip attending SMU and play in China instead. He was ranked by ESPN as the fifth best prospect the year he came out of high school, ranking ahead of Russell, Towns and Winslow. He was paid handsomely, so it is hard to blame him for his decision, but it makes the evaluation process harder. He also hurt his ankle during the season, which limited his playing time.
The athletic evaluation on him is strong. He is 6-foot-5, 200 pounds and very strong, with the type of big point-guard athleticism that should allow him to live in the lane and finish near the hoop. He would play point guard the same way Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose do. (I'm not saying he will play at the same level; he'll just have the same approach.) I've heard different things, both positive and negative about off-the-court/intangibles stuff with him, so that remains to be seen. The biggest knock on his game is that he is still a poor shooter, but that can always improve with practice. The ceiling here is very high, but the floor is low simply because there isn't a ton of information available to make the most educated decision possible.
Then there's Winslow. I'm not sure Winslow will ever be a consistent 20-plus ppg scorer in the NBA. But he is a guy who should be able to do everything well. He already has a NBA body at about 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, and should have the strength to guard pro small forwards. He works extremely hard and tries with maximum effort on defense. He is a good help defender and rebounder. He can get to the basket and finish. He shot well as a catch-and-shoot guy from college three-point land, but didn't shoot well off the dribble or from mid-range.
In my opinion, he projects as a great secondary support player who can be like a Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard (high-end projection) or Andre Iguodala. I think there's a very good chance that he becomes that type of player. There isn't much risk in that regard. Becoming a 1A scorer would require a lot of development and is tough to project with a lot of certainty. It is not impossible, but I wouldn't count on it. There's nothing wrong with that -- support players like that can be just as important to championship teams as the lead-dog scorers. Guys like the ones above either have or will receive close to max contracts. Winslow also could push Carmelo Anthony to the four, which would be beneficial to everyone.
Kristaps Porzingis is a 6-foot-11 big man from Latvia who many believe has sky-high potential, but he is a multiple-year project. Mario Hezonja is a 6-foot-7 small forward who can play the wing, shoot and has the athleticism to drive and finish. He is a real sleeper for the Knicks, but there seems to be a bigger risk to bringing players in from overseas. They not only have to adjust on the court, but also have to adjust culturally. Both these players are likely to be below Winslow and Mudiay on the Knicks' draft board.
The two other big men I've seen fans mention as options at four are Willie Cauley-Stein and Frank Kaminsky. Both, to me, are big reaches at four. Cauley-Stein might be the most versatile defender anyone has seen at that size, but he has zero offensive moves. He can catch and finish in transition and on the pick-and-roll, but does nothing besides that. His attitude and love of basketball has always been questioned.
Kaminsky is very skilled, but I'm not sure he has some of the qualities you want out of a NBA big man. He is not an elite rim protector. He will struggle rebounding with his slender build. I'm not sure he will be able to create his own shot against more athletic NBA defenders, either. He can spot up and shoot and stretch the floor, but I'm not sure how quickly his game will develop to do much else.
That's my early take, which will evolve over the next month or so as I pour deeper into these players. The only thing good about the Knicks picking fourth? There will be a lot to talk about.
You can follow me on Twitter @Schmeelk for everything Knicks, Giants and the world of sports.
