NEW YORK (CBSNewYork) — Are this week’s cool temperatures and soaking rain a sign of what the summer has in store? Or are we looking at a season of relentless heat and humidity?
CBS2’s Lonnie Quinn gave us his predictions Tuesday for our ultimate summer forecast.
In the CBS2 Weather Center, Quinn and producer Giorgio Panetta don’t just have the latest tools for up to the minute forecasts. They can do some long range projections too.
Quinn predicts it’s going to be a long hot summer, but not record-setting.
A typical summer afternoon averages 82 degrees, and Quinn believes New York’s temperatures will rise above that.
As for the long range summer forecast, Quinn turned to climatologist Marco Tedesco.
“For sure we, know it’s going to be warmer than usual,” Tedesco said. “There were temperatures in Greenland that were up to eight degrees above the mean in winter.”
Marco Tedesco is a climate specialist who studies arctic ice and Greenland. He says what happens there directly impacts our weather in New York, and adds that the warming trend he sees translates to warmer temperatures around the globe.
“You have less sea ice on the ocean it absorbs energy and warms up the ocean more,” Tedesco added.
And that means summer temperatures can be above normal.
Dr. Gavin Schmidt is a scientist with the weather division of NASA who says this trend is a long time in coming.
“We’ve been seeing warmer summers, longer numbers of days above 90 degrees,” Schmidt said.
This warming trend can impact storm forecasts too, for example, if ocean temperatures reach 81 degrees, expect problems.
“If you’ve got a particularly warm north Atlantic, that increases the chance of having more storms,” Schmidt said.
Dr. Schmidt said that two years ago, Superstorm Sandy was a one in 700-year event, but that doesn’t mean another catastrophic storm isn’t on the horizon.
This year, NOAA predicts zero to two major hurricanes. But we all know, all you need is one significant storm surge to absolutely devastate an area.
“The oceans are the engines,” said meteorologist Joe Thompson. “They are what drive the atmosphere patterns.”
Thompson isn’t worried about a rain soaked summer — he predicts warm and dry days ahead.
“It’s great for beach weather in August, but if you’re growing a garden or something like that, you may need a little extra in the way of watering yourself,” Thompson added.
Speaking of water and all the rain that has fallen in the past couple of days, there is still a moderate risk in place for most of New Jersey.