By Abraham Gutierrez
With two weeks in the books, the (2-0) New York Jets appear to be a team on a mission to contest for the 2015 AFC East title, despite starting the year as one of the clubs with the longest odds to win a divisional crown. In contrast, the (0-2) Philadelphia Eagles were one of those squads everyone expected to dominate NFC East, but thus far, seem destined for a catastrophic ending.
As a result, NFL Week 3 oddsmakers aren’t giving Chip Kelly’s birds much of a chance on the road against a team whose defense has proven to be impenetrable through the first two games. As of Thursday morning, the Jets [-3] are listed as three-point favorites, the Eagles as dogs by the same margin [+3], and the OVER/UNDER tallies a projected combined total of 46 points.
Nevertheless, seasoned NFL bettors are very well aware of the fact that there’s no getting too comfortable in the National Football League. Thus, given all the aforementioned factors and figures, this interconference clash has all the makings of a typical “trap game.” When complacency occurs, disaster usually follows, that’s just life in the NFL – just ask all the playoff teams from a year ago who have gotten off to 0-2 starts (i.e. Seahawks, Ravens, Colts and Lions).
ATS General Consensus
The first guilty party is the people betting against the spread in the Eagles-Jets game. At the present time, 53 percent of the action has been recorded in favor of a Jets cover at -3, and only 47 percent for the Eagles as +3 road dogs. For those keeping track, that number is comprised by a total of 575 bets for New York’s spread and only 508 for Philadelphia’s cause.
Breaking down this matchup in a more a methodical fashion, here’s a look at both clubs’ ATS trends prior to their Week 3 clash, which could easily be considered the “What Have You Done For Me Lately” statistics:
Jets ATS Trends To Consider
As it turns out, Gang Green has gotten plenty done in their most recent games against the spread. Todd Bowles squad comes in with a perfect 4-0 record in their last 4 home games, as well as in games following an ATS win like they did last week versus the Colts. In more good news, New York is also 5-0 in its last five games overall, 4-1-2 after straight-up wins, 4-1-1 versus teams with losing records, and 4-1 in its last five games played on fieldturf (surface).
Eagles ATS Trends To Consider
Not catching a break, Kelly isn’t getting much love from the mathematical gods either, as this team has been a betting nightmare against the spread in recent history. ATS trends tell a very compelling story, with the most significant figures being the Eagles’ 2-6-1 record after scoring less than 15 points in the previous game, their 5-16-1 performances versus teams above .500, their dismal 4-13-1 efforts following games when their “D” has allowed more than 350 total yards, the fact that they’re 1-4 in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss, and last but not least, Philly has struggled significantly in the opening month of the season, sporting a 3-12-1 mark in its last 16 September games.
2015 NFL Week 3 Predictions
Nevertheless, this game will be decided on how much oxygen the mighty New York defense will be able to breathe in going up against Kelly’s signature up-tempo offense. If last week’s game against the Colts was any indication, Gang Green could be in for a long afternoon, as the defense was clearly gassed in the latter stages of the Monday night game.
The constant pressure that the Eagles put on their opponents, couple with the fact that they will have a short week, has this game filed under the “Upset Alert” category for Week 3. Take the points, take the Eagles on the road and watch everyone’s reaction when Philly breaks into the win column: 2015 NFL Week 3 Predictions: Philadelphia Eagles +3.
For those interested in how the point-total for this game is projected to play out, here’s a look at both teams’ OVER/UNDER trends prior to their Week 3 showdown in East Rutherford, New Jersey:
Philadelphia’s O/U Trends
OVER is 6-0 in Philly’s last 6 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in its previous game.
OVER is 7-1 in Philly’s last 8 games after scoring less than 15 points its previous contest.
OVER is 8-2 in Philly’s last 10 games following an SU loss.
Under is 4-1 in Philly’s last 5 games in Week 3.
New York’s O/U Trends
OVER is 16-2 in NY’s last 18 Week 3 games.
UNDER is 5-1 in NY’s last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game.
UNDER is 5-2 in NY’s last 7 games on fieldturf (surface).
UNDER is 7-3 in NY’s last 10 games overall.
Abe Gutierrez’s (Twitter: @GutierrezAbe) passion led him to ditch law school journey in order to launch his own publishing company. His expertise make him a valued addition to Examiner.com, AXS.com and the CBS-Sports family. Some of his work can be found on CBS-Miami (Dolphins), CBS-LosAngeles (Chargers), CBS-BayArea (Raiders), CBS-NewYork (NY Jets), CBS-TampaBay (Buccaneers), AXS.com, Examiner.com and other online publications.