By Abraham Gutierrez
Earlier in the week, one labeled the deceiving 2015 NFL Week 6 matchup between the (2-3) Washington Redskins and (3-1) New York Jets an ATS “Trap Game” for more reasons than one. Pro-Skins bettors would be glad to know that, based on the way this team has performed this season, the visiting side is poised for a victory. On the flipside, there’s a surmountable amount of ATS trends and betting statistics suggesting that Gang Green should be able to cover the spread at home coming off a bye week.
Before getting into the meat and potatoes of this ATS showdown, it’s worth taking one final look at the most recent NFL Week 6 betting odds for this interconference clash. As of Thursday morning, NFL oddsmakers list the Jets as (-6) six-point favorites to defend home field against the inconsistent Redskins (+6). The OVER/UNDER is set at a combined total of 41 points, and straight-up money lines go as follows: Skins (+205) vs. Gang Green (-245).
Historically, this will only be the 11th time these teams meet on the gridiron, with Washington leading the head-to-head series 8-2 over New York. In spite of the fact that they haven’t played since the Jets’ (34-19) victory during the 2011 NFL season, there’s no shortage of information for bettors to consider prior to pulling the trigger when making an ATS decision.
Redskins ATS Statistics To Consider
In the case of the Redskins, prior to getting into what this team has done against the spread as of late, it’s worth noting that they’ve alternated wins and loses from week 1 up to now. Jay Gruden’s bunch kicked the season off with a loss to Miami, followed by a stunning win over St. Louis, a loss to the Giants, and shocked Philly before last week’s six-point loss at Atlanta.
Does that mean the Redskins are poised for a win against a team that possesses a stoic defense and a bruising rushing attack like the Jets? Before making a call like that, it’s time to consider Washington’s ATS trends and what this team has done in the betting world.
With five games in the books, the Skins are 2-3 on the year, but have proven to be a bit more dependable against the spread. This team comes into Week 6 with an ATS record of 3-2-0, along with some rather forgettable ATS trends. Starting with the positives, the Redskins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven ballgames when taking on teams with winning records.
Unfortunately for those residing in the nation’s capital, that’s where the encouraging signs of a pro-Skins bet end. Washington has shown an inability to win away from FedExField on a consistent basis, evidence by the fact that it’s 5-11 in its last 16 road games. Also disappointing is their record following a straight-up loss, which at the present time stands at 4-9 in their last 13 contests. More bad news for those hoping the Redskins can cover include:
Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an ATS win.
Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last seven contests after accumulating less than 90 rushing yards.
Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last seven affairs following a Bye.
Washington is 1-7-2 ATS in its last 10 Week 6 games.
Washington is 0-4 ATS after allowing more than 150 rushing yards.
Jets ATS Statistics To Consider
As far as Gang Green is concerned, their season record happens to match their ATS mark coming out of the bye week. For those looking for incentives to bet on the home team, there’s terrific news, as ATS statistics are pretty much one-sided in this matchup.
Under Todd Bowles, this team has shown an ability to build off the momentum built by their defense. The Jets are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four games after allowing less than 250 total yards the week prior. This bunch has also been terrific in their last seven games overall, posting a 6-1 mark in those instances, as well as defending home turf, proudly sporting a 4-1 record in their last 5 games played at MetLife Stadium.
New York has also been consistent after an ATS win, earning a 4-1 mark in their last five games after covering the spread. With Chris Ivory leading the rushing attack and Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, Gang Green is 4-1 in their last 5 games following games in which the offense has accumulated more than 350 yards of total offense.
Finally, the last bit of positive information surrounding this club is the fact that they have shown the ability to beat the teams they’re supposed to. The Jets are 5-2-1 against teams with losing records, which is one of characteristics most great teams possess. Playing up to the level of better competition is easy to do. However, underestimating the weaklings are the different between good teams and great ones.
Playing a bit of Devil’s Advocate, there are a few ATS statistics that could prove this game is in fact a “trap.” Those betting on the Jets should consider the following negative ATS stats heading into their Week 6 showdown with Washington: New York is 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards and 1-5 in its last six games coming out of a bye week.
Redskins vs. Jets 2015 NFL Week 6 ATS Consensus
For what it’s worth, the betting population seems to be onboard with one thing: New York is the better ATS option to cover on gameday. That is determined by the fact that 54 percent of the action favors the Jets and only 46 percent beg to differ. For the record, as of Thursday morning, Gang Green accounts for 566 wagers total, to the Redskins tally of 485. With all that said, one believes this game isn’t what it appears, and thus, bettors should proceed with caution dealing with a two-field-goal spread in this one.
2015 NFL Week 6 Picks: Washington Redskins +6
Abe Gutierrez’s (Twitter: @GutierrezAbe) passion led him to ditch law school journey in order to launch his own publishing company. His expertise make him a valued addition to Examiner.com, AXS.com and the CBS-Sports family. Some of his work can be found on CBS-Miami (Dolphins), CBS-LosAngeles (Chargers), CBS-BayArea (Raiders), CBS-NewYork (NY Jets), CBS-TampaBay (Buccaneers), AXS.com, Examiner.com and other online publications.