By Abraham Gutierrez
It’s no mystery that the New England Patriots have practically owned the New York Jets in their most recent battles, especially during their past 10 meetings, where the Pats hold a commanding 8-2-0 record. Having that said, what if one said that most trends against the spread indicate that Gang Green is poised for an upset in Week 7 at Foxborough?
As difficult as it may seem to believe – given the way New England has looked through six weeks (including bye) – ATS statistics and betting trends strongly suggest a New York win, or, worst-case scenario, a rather easy ATS cover despite being on the road against the defending champs.
For the record, the Jets [+9.5] come in as nine-point underdogs in this Week 7 matchup with the Patriots [-9.5], the OVER/UNDER tallies 44.5 points, and straight-up betting lines go as follows: New York [+330] vs. New England [-420].
Smart Money Lies On Underdog Jets
The first, and perhaps, most impactful set statistics in this AFC East clash can be found in these clubs’ most recent head-to-head figures. With first place in the division on the line, the Jets come in with an unblemished 4-0 record in their last four meetings against the mighty Patriots.
If that isn’t shocking enough, numbers indicate Gang Green loves playing in Foxborough. This is evident by the fact that the Jets are 4-1 in their last 5 games played at Gillette Stadium, and furthermore, the road team is 5-2 in the last seven games between these bitter foes.
Now, that has to be music to the ears of Jets fans with AFC East supremacy on the line in Week 7. But there’s one more compelling reason as to why the smart money lies on the “J-E-T-S!” as road dogs.
According to H2H trends against the spread, betting on the favorite hasn’t paid off as of late. With a perfect 4-0 record, the underdogs are the ones that have proven to be the profitable bet whenever the Jets and Patriots have met between the lines the last four times.
Jets ATS Trends To Consider
It’s clear that all the numbers above scream for a pro-underdog bet in favor of the visiting squad Sunday afternoon. The best part is that, not only do the Jets matchup favorably against Bill Belichick’s team, but they’ve also proven to be a reliable wager in a number of situations and scenarios.
For starter, Todd Bowles’ Jets come in sporting a 7-0 record against the AFC conference, and are proud owners of a 4-0 mark versus fellow AFC East opponents. This team is also 4-0-1 after its defense has allowed less than 250 total yards, 7-1 in their last eight games overall, 5-1 following an ATS win, 4-1 after winning straight-up, and, last but not least, are also 4-1 after accumulating more than 350 yards the week prior.
Patriots ATS Trends To Consider
As great as all that sounds, ignoring the fact that these are the defending Super Bowl champions could prove to be costly. That’s why it’s worth noting how profitable the Pats have proven to be for bettors by analyzing their most recent ATS trends.
Considering how dominant Tom Brady has been in his fourth title-defense, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that there aren’t too many franchises that have performed better than New England against the spread. The Pats are 4-0 ATS after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game, 9-1 in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record, and are 5-1 after a straight-up win as well as in games after the defense has allowed more than 250 passing yards.
Jets vs. Patriots Week 7 ATS General Consensus
In the “what have you done for me lately?” category, New York comes in with a 4-1 record against the spread, while New England is only 3-2-0 thus far in 2015. Perhaps that explains why the majority of the betting population likes Gang Green chances to cover the spread.
As of Thursday morning, statistics show that 59 percent of bettors are taking the Jets at +9. In contrast, simple math shows that only 41 percent of wagers have been registered suggesting a Pats cover by 10 points or more as the smart money.
2015 NFL Week 7 Predictions: New York Jets [+9]
Free NFL Picks Week 7 Against The Spread:
- 49ers [+5]
- Bills [-5]
- Rams [-5]
- Chiefs [+2.5]
- Dolphins [-4]
- Jets [+9.5]
- Lions [+2.5]
- Falcons [-4]
- Saints [+4]
- Buccaneers [+4]
- Raiders [+6]
- Giants [-6]
- Eagles [+3]
- Ravens [+7.5]
Abe Gutierrez’s (Twitter: @GutierrezAbe) passion led him to ditch law school journey in order to launch his own publishing company. His expertise make him a valued addition to Examiner.com, AXS.com and the CBS-Sports family. Some of his work can be found on CBS-Miami (Dolphins), CBS-LosAngeles (Chargers), CBS-BayArea (Raiders), CBS-NewYork (NY Jets), CBS-TampaBay (Buccaneers), AXS.com, Examiner.com and other online publications.