Schmeelk: Knicks Fans, For Their Own Good, Need To Embrace The Tank
By John Schmeelk
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As Knicks fans walked out of Madison Square Garden on Monday night with frowns on their faces, they were not considering the big picture.
If they take a good long look at who the Knicks are and where they are going, they should have been very happy. It's certainly counter-intuitive, but for the Knicks to win later, they must lose now. The pain will be worth it. It's time for #Knickstank. No, not "Knick stank," but "Knicks Tank."
It was fitting that on a day that another part of Phil Jackson's "win now" scheme from last summer self-destructed with the news of Joakim Noah's knee surgery, the team improved its chances in the lottery. Between Jackson's inability to trade Derrick Rose for anything, and now Noah's injury, the idea of winning now is over.
It has been for a while, but maybe now everyone will finally notice.
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Without re-litigating the offseason, the Knicks need to understand their mistake and how easy Noah's failure should have been to predict. He was coming off two injury-plagued years where his defense and efficiency on offense were already dipping. Once a player that depends on hustle and athleticism to be effective starts to physically fall apart (and is over 30), a steep decline is inevitable. The Knicks should have been able to predict this and it should result in not making the same type of mistake moving forward.
Do the Knicks have a chance to make the playoffs? Sure. They are only five games behind Detroit in the lost column. Unfortunately for the Knicks, three teams sit between them and the Pistons. The chance of passing four teams in the final 22 games is slim given the Knicks' record over the last two months.
The Knicks would be far better off sliding in the other direction towards the bottom of the standings. Even if they do by some miracle make the playoffs, getting whacked by the Cavaliers in the first round wouldn't be a reward.
Improving their odds to land another star to grow next to Kristaps Porzingis needs to be the only priority this franchise has moving forward. This summer's draft is very deep with franchise point guards if a team has a high enough pick and selects the right player. There's a much better chance of getting that player selecting in the top 5 than between spots 6 and 10.
The team did look better in their past two games against the Sixers and Raptors, but they were also missing two of their best players: Joel Embiid and Kyle Lowry, respectively. The Knicks' coming schedule is favorable, with five of their next nine games coming against teams with worse record than they have. The contests will be important ones the Knicks are better off losing.
The matchups against the 76ers, Magic (twice) and Nets (twice) will all be crucial in determining the Knicks' position in the lottery. Right now they have the NBA's ninth-worst record, but they are only two games in the loss column out of having the third-worst record in the league. That would give them a great chance of landing point guards like Markelle Fultz or Lonzo Ball.
There's certainly a chance that fellow top-10 guards like Malik Monk, Dennis Smith, Frank Ntilikina or De'Aaron Fox can be special, too, but there's a much larger danger the Knicks wind up with the wrong guy that won't work out.
If the Knicks are ever going to get themselves out of the hole the franchise has been in for the last 15 years, they are going to have to find another star in the draft. The best way to do that is to lose and hope the odds favor them in June when ping pong balls determine the draft order.
The ninth-place team has only about a 6 percent chance of landing a top-three pick. The team with the third-worst record has a 47 percent chance of getting a top-three pick. The team with the fourth worst record has about a 38 percent shot. The fifth-worst team has a just under 30 percent chance of being in the top three. It gets continuously worse from there. The difference is real.
All that matters is the future. All Knicks fans should root for their team to lose, so one day they might finally start to win.
Schmeelk's Snippets
- Noah's injury puts a nice bow on what was already looking like a disastrous signing and offseason in general. With three years and $54 million left on the contract, the Knicks are going to have to live with that weighing on their salary cap for a few years. With the team so far away from being ready to compete, it would be far better off eating the pain of the contract now, rather than spreading it out over seven years (at just under $8 million per season) with the stretch provision. Noah should be coming off the cap right when the Knicks have a real chance to make a playoff run, if they draft well over the next four seasons.
For all things Knicks and Giants, please follow John on Twitter at @Schmeelk
